Breaking! Moscow hit by large-scale attack!

The Russia-Ukraine situation remains deadlocked.

According to the latest news, Moscow, the capital of Russia, experienced its largest drone attack of the year. Moscow Mayor Sobyanin stated that since midnight on March 17, more than 20 drones have been shot down. Additionally, the Russian Defense Ministry reported on March 16 that between 11 p.m. on March 15 and 8 a.m. on March 16, the Russian air defense systems intercepted and destroyed 145 Ukrainian drones.

Meanwhile, a new round of Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations has also encountered significant changes. According to Russian sources, Kremlin spokesperson Peskov recently said that due to the United States prioritizing the Middle East situation, negotiations regarding Ukraine have been suspended. Analysts believe that if the conflict in the Middle East continues at a high intensity, it will be difficult to restart Russia-Ukraine talks in the short term.

Moscow suffers large-scale drone attacks

On March 17, Xinhua News Agency reported that TASS on the 17th stated that Moscow has experienced its largest drone attack of the year since the 14th. Over the past three days, Russian air defense systems have shot down 181 drones approaching Moscow.

The report said that from the 14th to the 16th, the defense systems shot down 65, 54, and 62 drones heading toward Moscow, and the attacks are still ongoing.

Additionally, Moscow Mayor Sobyanin posted on social media that since midnight on the 17th, more than 20 drones have been shot down.

The Russian Defense Ministry reported on March 16 that between 11 p.m. on March 15 and 8 a.m. on March 16, Russian air defense systems intercepted and destroyed 145 Ukrainian drones, including 53 in the Moscow region, 46 of which were heading toward Moscow city. Sobyanin stated on social media on the morning of the 16th that in the past two days, Russian air defense forces near Moscow have destroyed approximately 250 Ukrainian drones.

The Ukrainian Air Force reported that between 6 p.m. on the 15th and the morning of the 16th, Russia launched 211 drones toward Ukraine, many targeting Kyiv and surrounding areas. As of 11 a.m. on the 16th, Ukrainian forces had shot down or electronically countered 194 drones.

According to Xinhua News Agency on March 16, citing Ukrainian reports, Ukrainian President Zelensky said that Ukraine only provides technical support to Middle Eastern countries and is not involved in a war with Iran.

On March 16, Zelensky posted on his personal social media that Middle Eastern countries and U.S. military bases in the Middle East need increased protection. “They need drone interception systems, and we (Ukraine) happen to have new technology.”

Zelensky emphasized that although the U.S. military has a strong arsenal, it lacks this particular technology. He also mentioned that Gulf countries have used a large number of air defense missiles to counter Iran’s drones. “But in Kyiv, we almost every night use cheap small drones or electronic jamming devices to shoot down Russian drones.”

Uncertainty in Russia-Ukraine negotiations

Currently, the latest round of peace talks scheduled to be held in the UAE between Russia, the U.S., and Ukraine has been postponed due to the Middle East situation.

According to Russian sources, Kremlin spokesperson Peskov recently stated that negotiations on Ukraine have been suspended because the U.S. needs to prioritize the Middle East situation. Peskov said that the situation on the front lines of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is positive for Russia; the Russian military is advancing and gradually achieving its goals. However, Russia remains open to resolving the issue through diplomatic means.

What signals does Russia’s statement about suspending negotiations on Ukraine send? When might negotiations resume? How has the Middle East situation affected Russia-Ukraine dynamics?

According to Chen Yu, Deputy Director of the Eurasian Institute at the China Institute of Modern International Relations, first, the original negotiation venue in Abu Dhabi is clearly no longer feasible. Second, U.S. diplomatic resources are heavily diverted by the Iran conflict, making it difficult for the U.S. to focus on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Third, former President Trump’s attention has shifted to Middle Eastern issues. Historically, if Trump’s focus shifts, negotiations tend to stall.

Chen Yu said, “I think the key is to watch the outlook for the Middle East conflict. If the conflict ends or shifts to a very low intensity, the U.S. might have extra diplomatic resources to mediate the Russia-Ukraine situation, and Trump could refocus on Ukraine. But if the Middle East conflict continues at a high level, I believe it will be difficult to restart Russia-Ukraine negotiations in the short term.”

He further added, “We also need to consider how the Middle East conflict impacts Russia-Ukraine. On one hand, it could give Russia a temporary advantage because the U.S. is reallocating many Patriot missile defense systems to defend Gulf countries, which reduces the resources available for Ukraine’s defense against Russian long-range strikes and air attacks. Additionally, rising oil prices caused by the conflict help alleviate Russia’s current financial strain caused by declining energy revenues.”