CITIC Securities: Fed Expected Not to Cut Rates in April; Under Waller's Leadership, Base Case Scenario Projects 1 Rate Cut of 25bps in Second Half

MetaMuskRat · 2026-03-19T08:20:15+00:00

People's Finance News, March 19 — CITIC Securities points out that the Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate unchanged at the March 2026 interest rate decision meeting, in line with market expectations. The latest dot plot shows the target rate midpoint for this year at 3.4%, consistent with December 2025, while raising this year's inflation forecast and slightly raising the economic growth forecast, maintaining the unemployment rate forecast unchanged. Powell did not make judgments on the Iran situation and oil prices as expected, with notably weakened confidence compared to January regarding disinflation from tariffs. It is expected that the Fed will not cut rates in April, and under Waller's tenure as chair, the baseline scenario anticipates one 25bps rate cut in the second half of the year.

MetaMuskRat

2026-03-19 08:20:15

People’s Financial News, March 19 — Citic Securities pointed out that the Federal Reserve’s March 2026 policy meeting kept interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. The latest dot plot shows that the target interest rate center for this year is 3.4%, consistent with December 2025, while inflation forecasts for this year have been raised slightly, and economic growth forecasts have been modestly increased. The unemployment rate forecast remains unchanged. It is noteworthy that Powell did not make any judgments on the Iran situation and oil prices as expected, and his confidence in the decline of tariffs and inflation has further weakened compared to January. The expectation is that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in April, and after Waller becomes chair, there will be one 25bps rate cut in the second half of the year.

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