Powell "Refusing to Leave"?

On March 19, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell not only delivered a “policy bomb” by keeping interest rates unchanged but also staged a “life-and-death declaration” of his personal political career at the subsequent press conference. Facing investigations by the Department of Justice, pressure from Trump, and a deadlock in the Senate, Powell rarely showed his “steel will”: as long as the investigation is not over, I will not step down.

1. Powell’s “Iron Will Declaration”: Not only staying but also seeking power

● When asked about his personal future, Powell abandoned his previous ambiguous stance and gave a very firm response. He emphasized that he has no intention of leaving the Federal Reserve Board until the Department of Justice’s investigation into him and the Fed is thoroughly concluded and the truth is revealed. This was not only a positive response to months of speculation but also a public “demonstration” to the White House.

● Powell’s chairmanship will expire this May, but his board tenure legally continues until January 2028. This means that even if he loses the chairman title, he remains an influential force in Fed decision-making. Even more, Powell invoked legal protections: if Trump’s nominated successor Kevin Wirth is not confirmed by the Senate before his term ends, he will serve as “acting chair” by law, continuing to oversee the Fed’s daily operations.

● This “seamless transition” statement was interpreted by markets as a signal of Powell’s determination to fight to the last moment. As Nick Timiraos, the “Fed mouthpiece,” said, Powell’s move greatly constrains Trump’s attempts to reshape the Fed. After all, as long as Powell remains in his board position, Trump has one less slot to fill with his own people.

2. The hidden battle behind interest rates: Judicial investigation and political retaliation

● The root of this turmoil is not merely economic data disagreements but a political covert war involving a $250 billion market value fluctuation. In January, the Department of Justice suddenly issued a subpoena over cost overruns in the Fed headquarters renovation project, directly targeting Powell.

● Powell dismissed this with disdain, directly exposing the political motive: the investigation is just an excuse; the real reason is his refusal to set interest rates according to Trump’s demands. Earlier this month, a federal judge ruled in favor of Powell, halting the subpoena and stating that the government’s move was to “harass and pressure Powell.” However, the Department of Justice was not deterred and threatened to appeal.

● This legal tug-of-war directly affected Congress’s attitude. North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis announced he would not support Wirth’s nomination until the investigation is fully resolved. This undoubtedly gave Powell a breather. If Wirth’s confirmation is indefinitely delayed, Powell can not only continue to sit in the chair but may also directly influence monetary policy in the second half of 2026.

3. Policy firmness and market turbulence: inflation, war, and “temporary chair”

● Beyond political struggles, the economic reality faced by the Fed is equally severe. The FOMC meeting on March 18 decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, marking the second consecutive pause.

● Powell sent a clear “hawkish” signal at the press conference. He pointed out that inflation remains stubborn, and he expects the PCE inflation rate to reach 2.7% by the end of 2026, higher than previous forecasts. He attributed inflation to a “double shock” from tariffs and energy prices, especially the surge in oil prices due to escalating Middle East tensions. This means that until inflation shows substantial improvement, the possibility of rate cuts is minimal. He even revealed that the committee has started discussing “whether to raise rates further” in the next steps.

● Against this backdrop, Powell’s uncertain status as chairman has brought great uncertainty to global markets. If Powell can only serve as “acting chair” after May, his authority and market guidance ability will be tested. But for now, he remains the “gatekeeper” controlling US monetary policy.

4. Crypto market perspective: Using AiCoin to view turbulence

● For cryptocurrency investors, Powell’s “defense battle” is not just a televised war of words. The Fed’s interest rate path, geopolitical risks, and Washington’s power shifts are profoundly affecting crypto markets’ bull and bear cycles through dollar liquidity.

● In this era of information explosion and fierce long-short battles, how can professional tools help cut through the fog? AiCoin, a professional crypto market data platform, is helping users seize opportunities during this turbulent cycle. For example, recently, as Fed policy uncertainty increased, prediction market platform Kalshi surged in popularity, ranking #20 on AiCoin’s project heat list with a heat index of 16,562.

● Through AiCoin’s “Airdrop Radar” feature, users can easily track emerging projects deeply linked to traditional financial markets. Whether betting on BTC price movements based on Fed decisions or hedging war risks via prediction markets, AiCoin offers more than just candlestick charts; it connects on-chain data with macro events. Just as Powell acknowledged the impact of AI on the economy at the press conference, crypto investors also need tools like AiCoin to find their own Alpha amid macro storms.

Powell’s stance of neither stepping down nor cutting rates has shattered Trump’s dream of rate cuts. As May 15 approaches, this power, legal, and financial drama will continue to unfold in Washington. Whether Powell remains or Wirth takes over, one thing is certain: in a high-interest-rate environment, the global economy and crypto markets must continue to navigate through turbulence.