A small observation about the Fed cuts and CPI: inflation data came in lower after the bear market in 2022 followed by a bull market that is still ongoing today, after inflation dropped sharply again the Fed started cutting rates for the first time around August 2024 through December 2024, since then the trend in inflation has continued to move lower printing lower lows and lower highs.

A new low was reached in April when Trump pushed the tariffs narrative, which I believe was intended to create market panic and delay Fed decisions & stimulate consumers. At each FOMC conference the Fed kept repeating the same message: “We need more data, we need to monitor the inflation impact of tariffs” This continued month after month.
Meanwhile inflation made another lower high at the same time that crypto finished its rally with ETH pumping from 1,400 to 5,000, BTC making another ATH and some altcoins following with a smaller market rally.
Now I fear it’s the same playbook again, after the Iran war the Fed will likely say they need to monitor the situation to assess whether inflation risks will persist—even though, in my view it won’t and they may continue this stance until the new Fed chair takes office in May.
Then at the next FOMC in June they will begin cutting rates (blaming it on Jpowell) after which they will realize that inflation is not persistent (again), at the same time crypto may continue its rally, with large caps potentially outperforming this time stronger than ETH and BTC & shortly after a small altcoin season can follow into the end of the year to end the cycle by when inflation may reach the Fed’s 2% target followed by a bounce from a new narrative later this year or early next year moving back up to that gap resetting the markets.