At 2 AM tonight, the Federal Reserve interest rate decision will be released, but it's already starting to decline. Bitcoin and $ETH have re-entered the upper boundary of the oscillation range from over a month ago.

So is this rebound over? To be clear, yes, it's over!

The Fed's meeting is almost certain to maintain rates unchanged, which is actually bearish, because interest rates are too high right now. The main point to watch is what Powell says at 2:30?

Actually, this consecutive rebound is mainly because the decline was too severe—five consecutive monthly losses, and then there were too many short sellers. As a result, short positions were significantly higher than long positions in the previous period, which is very abnormal. Normally, there are always more long traders in this market!

This rally that forced shorts to cover has a very clear objective: consecutive small bullish daily candles, followed by volume expansion and then a drop back down.

The market fundamentals haven't improved; there's still a lack of liquidity, and there's the US-Iran war black swan event. So the bulls absolutely cannot be complacent now. Looking at the longer timeframe, $60K is not Bitcoin's bottom either. Breaking below $60K remains a matter of time.

Bitcoin's current position is very similar to the downtrend continuation from mid-November to mid-January. So over the next month, it may be the time point for Bitcoin to break $60K.