Based on current market expectations, the Federal Reserve will most likely hold interest rates unchanged at 2 AM, with the federal funds rate expected to remain in the 3.50%—3.75% range. The market has largely already priced in expectations of a "pause in adjustments," so the key factor truly affecting the market is not the interest rate level itself, but rather the Fed's guidance on future policy paths in the post-meeting remarks, particularly shifts in language regarding inflation, employment, and whether further dovish signals will be sent through year-end.

If the meeting releases dovish signals, such as emphasizing economic slowdown pressures and preserving room for future rate cuts, market risk appetite will clearly rebound, and capital will likely flow back into the crypto market quickly. Bitcoin could test recent highs on the short side overnight, while Ethereum typically amplifies the gains due to stronger elasticity, forming a synchronized rally. However, if the language is cautious or even hawkish, emphasizing that inflation still poses pressure, a stronger dollar will suppress risk assets, Bitcoin could see quick pullbacks on the short side, and Ethereum may experience more pronounced declines due to concentrated leverage liquidations.

From a technical perspective, the market has entered a consolidation phase awaiting news releases. What truly needs attention is the first 10-15 minutes after the news breaks—this period often sees two-way liquidations that quickly clear long and short leverage before choosing the true direction. Therefore, for overnight trading, a more rational approach is to wait for the first round of spikes to conclude, observe the direction of capital inflows, and then follow the secondary continuation move. This makes it easier to avoid misjudgments caused by emotional fluctuations. #美联储利率决议