Here's about the Federal Reserve interest rate decision meeting on March 19th:

For this Federal Reserve interest rate decision meeting, the market has almost reached a consensus: there will be no rate cut in March, so the result itself will likely not trigger significant volatility and has basically been priced in ahead of time.

There are two key things to watch:

The first is the dot plot. The market currently widely believes that rate cuts will be pushed further back, possibly only 1-2 cuts throughout 2026, with the first rate cut potentially not happening until September or even later. If the dot plot is more hawkish than expected, like showing only one rate cut, that would have a clear negative impact on risk asset sentiment.

The second is Powell's remarks. The main focus is on how he discusses oil prices, inflation, and the timing of rate cuts. Whenever there's a statement like "rates higher for longer," the market generally treats it as negative.

Overall, the market has already been pricing in hawkish expectations ahead of time, making the meeting itself more like negative news materializing. The key is whether the hawkish tone will exceed the market's current expectations.

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