3:18 PM Analysis

From the 1-hour chart, Bitcoin surged near 75,800 and then quickly pulled back, currently under pressure at the 74,805 level. The Bollinger Band upper band at 74,805 creates strong resistance, with price continuing to trade below the midline. The MA7/MA30 moving averages have turned downward, forming a short-term bearish trend, with bears in control.

Federal Reserve decision headwinds: Although tonight's FOMC meeting is expected to keep rates unchanged, the core risk lies in the dot plot and Powell's remarks. Currently, market pricing for rate cuts in 2026 has cooled significantly, with even "zero rate cuts" hawkish expectations emerging. Expectations of higher rates persisting longer will directly tighten market liquidity, imposing direct pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin, and strengthening risk-aversion sentiment will increase short-term fund outflows.

Long profit-taking realization: Yesterday, Bitcoin was driven to 75,800 by derivatives longs, but the uptrend quickly collapsed. Institutional short-term profit-taking signals are obvious. With the Fear & Greed Index currently in extreme fear territory, long momentum is insufficient, and selling pressure at highs continues to be digested.

Geopolitical and compliance dual headwinds: Middle East tensions pushing up oil prices, with stagflation risks further strengthening the Fed's hawkish stance. Simultaneously, South Korea's heavy penalties on exchanges and Hong Kong's stablecoin license limited initial quotas represent tightening global regulatory compliance pace, making it difficult for short-term market risk appetite to recover and limiting Bitcoin's rebound space.

Trading suggestions: Short at 74,500-75,000, targets 72,500-73,000.$XRP $ETH $BTC