"Fake oil prices" are still hovering around $100, while the "real oil prices" have already reached as high as $155

Global oil prices are experiencing a rare dual-track split. Brent and WTI remain around $100, while spot prices for Dubai and Oman crude have surged to $155 per barrel.

According to Wind Trading Desk, on March 17, JPMorgan Chase’s Commodity Chief Natasha Kaneva’s team report pointed out that the relative stability of Brent and WTI does not indicate ample global supply but is a “false impression” created by regional inventory buffers, benchmark pricing distortions, and policy interventions.

JPMorgan warns that if the Strait of Hormuz cannot be reopened, this price divergence will be unsustainable. As Atlantic basin inventories gradually deplete, Brent and WTI will eventually be forced to reprice upward, aligning more closely with Middle Eastern spot prices.

Atlantic inventories mask Middle Eastern shortages

JPMorgan emphasizes that the stability of Brent and WTI prices is primarily because they are “Atlantic basin benchmarks.” This means their pricing is more influenced by local supply and demand in Europe and America rather than the overall global situation.

The core of current supply disruptions is in the Strait of Hormuz, located in the Middle East. Meanwhile, the US and Europe have sufficient commercial crude inventories into early 2026, and market expectations, including some strategic petroleum reserve releases, have temporarily eased tensions along the Atlantic coast.

Therefore, these benchmarks reflect regional, buffered looseness rather than global shortages.

In contrast, Dubai and Oman crude, as Middle Eastern benchmarks, are directly exposed to the impact of export disruptions and can more effectively capture marginal scarcity. Both spot prices have now reached $155 per barrel.

This price directly reflects the extreme difficulty of shipping crude from the Gulf region. Because Brent and WTI cannot fully capture the marginal supply shortage occurring in the Middle East.

Asia bears the brunt first, with a time lag providing a buffer for Europe and America

Geopolitical trade patterns further amplify this divergence. The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most critical oil transit chokepoint, with the vast majority of transit oil flowing to Asian markets.

JPMorgan data shows that India, Japan, and South Korea are the main buyers of Gulf crude, with Asia importing about 11.2 million barrels per day from the Gulf, and refining products about 1.4 million barrels per day.

This means that the immediate physical shortage and price surge caused by this supply disruption are most concentrated in Asian markets. JPMorgan notes early signs of demand disruption in Asia, with rapid increases in refined product prices, high spot procurement costs, and some demand beginning to exit the market.

The timing of transportation further widens the price gap. The typical voyage from the Gulf to Asia takes about 10-15 days, while shipments to Europe require passing through the Suez Canal, taking about 25-30 days. Rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope can take 35-45 days.

This means Asia will experience the impact of Gulf oil supply cuts earlier and more intensely, while the Atlantic basin markets represented by Brent and WTI, due to existing inventories and slow supply adjustments, will have a longer buffer period.

Buffers will eventually run out, and Brent and WTI face upward re-pricing pressure

JPMorgan clearly warns that the current apparent stability of Brent and WTI is temporary.

The three main factors supporting this stability—regional inventory surplus, benchmark pricing structures, and policy interventions—are essentially short-term buffers and do not reflect the true tightness of global supply. Once Atlantic basin commercial inventories accelerate depletion, the global market will be forced to reprice under tighter supply conditions.

In JPMorgan’s scenario analysis, if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, Brent and WTI will ultimately reprice upward, aligning more closely with Middle Eastern spot prices. At that point, the current spread of over $55 per barrel between Brent and Dubai will become the greatest risk premium hanging over global oil prices.

The above insights are from Wind Trading Desk.

For more detailed analysis, including real-time commentary and frontline research, please join the 【**Wind Trading Desk - Annual Membership**】.

![](https://img-cdn.gateio.im/social/moments-ed3cdb6ecf-2b35d67792-8b7abd-ceda62)

Risk Disclaimer and Terms

Market risks are present; investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not consider individual users' specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions herein are suitable for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly at your own risk.