📊 2026-03-18 ETH Technical Analysis + Intraday Strategy (Beijing Time 11:15)

Current Price: Oscillating around $2,346
24H Range: $2,300–$2,385, consolidation at highs

I. Trend & Structure

- Daily: Oscillating uptrend channel, intact bullish structure; successive upper wicks show **$2,385** has heavy selling pressure
- 4H/1H: Short-term bearish bias, probing **$2,384** (previous high) encounters resistance and pulls back, piercing short-term moving averages
- Volume: Pullback on increasing volume, rally on decreasing volume, weak bullish momentum
- Medium-term: 50/100-day moving averages in bullish alignment, $2,250 is the medium-term bull/bear dividing line

II. Key Support/Resistance Levels (Precise Levels)

- Resistance Levels
- Intraday strong resistance: $2,370–$2,385 (previous high + psychological level)
- Medium-term strong resistance: $2,420–$2,450 (weekly level)
- Support Levels
- First support: $2,300–$2,320 (short-term moving average + intraday low)
- Strong support: $2,250–$2,280 (institutional cost zone + key defense)
- Breakdown target: $2,200

III. Indicator Signals

- RSI: 4H pullback to around 50, neutral-to-weak, exiting overbought
- MACD: 4H death cross, red histogram turning green, strengthening bearish momentum
- Bollinger Bands: Price under pressure at upper band, reverting to midband

IV. Macro Core (Today's Biggest Variable)

- Fed Rate Decision March 19 Early Morning:
- Expected rate hold, focus on dot plot + Powell's remarks for rate cut signals
- Dovish → USD weakness → ETH breaks **$2,385**; Hawkish → USD strength → ETH retests**$2,250**

V. Intraday Trading Strategy (Reference Only, Not Investment Advice)

1. Safe Long Strategy

- Entry: Pullback to **$2,250–$2,280** holds, scale in on longs
- Stop Loss: $2,200 (breakdown indicates trend weakening)
- Targets: $2,340 → $2,370 → $2,385

2. Aggressive Short Strategy

- Entry: Rally to **$2,370–$2,385** encounters resistance, scale in on shorts
- Stop Loss: $2,420 (breakout restarts bull trend)
- Targets: $2,320 → $2,300 → $2,280

3. Conservative Wait Strategy

- Light position/flat before decision, wait for signal confirmation then trade the trend
- Break **$2,385 → trend follow long; break below $2,250** → trend follow short

VI. Risk Warnings

- Volatile swings around decision, strict position sizing + stop loss, single position max 3%
- Break below **$2,250** indicates short-term trend turns bearish, watch $2,200 support
- Hold above **$2,385**restarts bull trend, watch $2,420+**

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