To be honest, I don't think there's much to be nervous about with this Fed meeting.

Not because it's not important, but because the outcome is too certain—March definitely won't see a rate cut, something even the street vendor selling crepes at the corner knows. So tomorrow's 2 AM rate decision is basically just going through the motions; the market won't even blink.

There are really only two things worth watching, and both are the kind of "reading between the lines" stuff.

First, the dot plot.

Basically, it's the Fed committee members anonymously voting on how many rate cuts they think should happen this year. Back in December, they wrote "1 cut," and that's what the market is currently betting on.

But here's the thing—what if these guys suddenly get more hawkish?

If tomorrow's result comes back as "0 cuts," now that's interesting. It's basically these bigwigs saying: forget about it, that's it for the year, rates aren't dropping. Stuff that's sensitive to rates—US stocks, BTC, growth stocks—would probably take a hit.

Second, Powell's mouth.

Powell is a guy who doesn't let anything slip, but you have to read between the lines.

For example, if he says "inflation is still elevated," that's just stating the obvious. But if he drops that classic line—"higher for longer"—then you better pay attention, because that's basically throwing cold water on the market.

On the flip side, if he dodges the question, saying things like "we'll follow the data" or "we still need to observe the impact of tariffs," he's actually leaving the market some hope, which is actually more dovish.

So here's my current take:

The market is already bracing for a "hawkish" outcome, so as long as the result isn't too outlandish—like actually pulling off a "0 cuts" move—it might actually be a case of the shoe finally dropping in the short term, and we could see a bounce.

What I'm worried about is if these guys come out even more hawkish than expected.

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Anyway, we'll know for sure tomorrow at 2 AM.

Before the dot plot comes out, don't rush to all-in, and don't rush to short either. Let the bullets fly for a bit.