Over the past two weeks, U.S. gasoline prices have surged from approximately $3.00-$3.25 per gallon to $3.854, accumulating gains of nearly 20%. Just in the past week alone, prices jumped another 6%+, pushing prices back to near 2024 highs, with some regions even approaching the extreme levels from 2022.

More critically, it's not the rise itself, but the fact that after rising, prices haven't fallen much.

From a technical structure perspective, this segment clearly represents news-driven accelerated gains, while current high-level consolidation essentially reflects a repricing between bulls and bears regarding supply risks from Middle East tensions. In other words, the market isn't treating this as a "short-term shock," but rather pricing it as "sustained disruption."

This is where it gets interesting:

If oil prices don't fall back, inflation won't come down; if inflation doesn't come down, interest rate cuts will be difficult; if rates don't fall, it will be very hard for risk assets to rise comfortably.

#WTI