The Bubble of Financialization of Old Liquor Bursts

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Source: Beijing Business Today

A seemingly ordinary announcement marks the end of the craze for the “financialization” of vintage liquor. On March 17, Beijing Business Today learned from the Shanghai International Liquor Trading Center that all business related to collectible and vintage liquors has been fully halted, and system account functions will be closed after April 30. This nearly 15-year operating trading platform is officially stepping off the stage of electronic vintage liquor trading.

The exit of the Shanghai International Liquor Trading Center is not a collapse of vintage liquor valuation logic but a clear prophecy about the industry’s future direction. Over recent years, it’s evident that as the veneer of financialization peels away, vintage liquor is undergoing a transformation from a “hot-potato” investment target to a “genuine consumer beverage.” Standardization and mass-market appeal will be the keywords in the next phase of industry reshuffling.

“Secularization” Dream Shattered

The Shanghai International Liquor Trading Center’s “Notice of Business Suspension and Asset Return” states that, after research, all collectible and vintage liquor businesses are to cease immediately. Members and clients holding accounts (including funds and liquor) are asked to complete withdrawals and clear balances by April 30, 2026. After that, system account functions will be closed.

Regarding the reasons for halting all collectible and vintage liquor businesses, Beijing Business Today contacted the Shanghai International Liquor Trading Center, but as of press time, the call was not answered.

Public information shows that the Shanghai International Liquor Trading Center was established in June 2011, with business covering collectible and consumer liquor trading, featuring trading rules such as price fluctuation limits and warehouse receipt registration. The platform facilitates investment and circulation through physical liquor trading, with full bank supervision ensuring fund security. Notably, its key operating model is electronic warehouse receipt trading, allowing frequent buying and selling of vintage liquor with features like price fluctuations, enabling investors to profit from trading.

Industry insiders believe that the shutdown of the Shanghai International Liquor Trading Center essentially signifies the inevitable end of the “financialization” model for vintage liquor, not a crisis for the industry itself. For true vintage liquor enthusiasts, the impact is minimal because this model involves splitting liquor into shares traded electronically, which has always diverged from the core consumption attribute of liquor.

In recent years, the government has intensified efforts to clean up and regulate various trading venues, explicitly prohibiting centralized bidding, repurchase commitments, and standardized rights. An industry veteran stated that the Shanghai Liquor Exchange is a local platform, and its adjustments have “little to no impact” on the national vintage liquor industry.

Pain and Divergence

If the closure of the Shanghai Liquor Exchange is just a surface phenomenon, the real ecosystem of the vintage liquor market is what truly determines the industry’s fate.

Beijing Business Today’s review shows that since 2014, the domestic vintage liquor market has entered a rapid growth phase. After the deep adjustment of the Baijiu industry in 2016, the vintage liquor market experienced explosive growth. Public data indicates that from 2016 to 2021, the market size was approximately 20 billion, 37 billion, 50 billion, 62.8 billion, 80.2 billion, and 105.6 billion yuan respectively. It’s clear that the market has been expanding year by year.

Notably, industry monitoring data shows that by 2026, the domestic vintage liquor resale market exceeded 35 billion yuan, with Moutai series liquor accounting for over 60%, and Zodiac Moutai, with its increasing appreciation potential, making up over 25% of Moutai’s total resale volume. This indicates that the fundamental market remains solid, and the shutdown of individual platforms has not caused a collapse.

Baijiu marketing expert Cai Xuefei said that the vintage liquor craze is mainly driven by Moutai’s strong benchmark role. The popularization of concepts like collection, investment, and appreciation of Moutai vintage liquor has boosted the overall market.

Despite continuous expansion, prices remain volatile. Vintage liquor collector Wang Hao said, “The collectors who came in purely for speculation and appreciation are basically gone. Those still in the game are ‘collecting + tasting,’ buying high when prices are high and low when prices are low—price swings don’t affect them much.”

This shift in participants directly impacts products, leading to a filtering process based on “scarcity” and “liquidity.” As a result, the market shows divergence: rare vintage wines and culturally significant zodiac commemorative liquors still command prices, while ordinary vintage liquors lacking brand backing and quality are experiencing a painful valuation correction.

Industry insiders believe that the current vintage liquor market is undergoing a painful deleveraging process. The bubbles inflated by speculative capital are gradually being squeezed out, while genuine demand driven by consumption and collection is showing resilience amid the market’s upheaval.

From Collection to Drink

The exit of the Shanghai International Liquor Trading Center is not the final whistle for the vintage liquor industry but the opening of a new chapter. As the illusion of financialization dissipates, vintage liquor is returning to its most authentic form. This return fundamentally involves shifting from “financial attributes” back to “consumption attributes.” Future markets will move from “hot-potato” trading to bottle opening and tasting, with genuine drinking becoming the new value anchor.

Previously, Song Shuyu, Chairman of the China Alcoholic Drinks Association, divided the evolution of fine liquor consumption into three stages: the 1.0 era focused on quantity (“no liquor to drink” to “having liquor to drink”); the 2.0 era emphasizing quality (“drinking good liquor” to “drinking famous liquor”); and currently, we are entering the 3.0 era of appreciating culture, value, and lifestyle. Song also emphasized that vintage liquor should not only return to the distillery but also to thousands of households, promoting the trend of “storing young wine as old” and “drinking the stored old,” fostering a positive industry cycle.

To truly bring vintage liquor back into households, many obstacles must be cleared. Beijing Business Today learned that the industry faces issues such as rampant counterfeiting, lack of unified appraisal and collection standards, incomplete policies on taxation and trading of aged liquor, and the urgent need for standardized terminology and market price indices.

Public records show that in June 2025, Renhuai Market Supervision Bureau received reports alleging illegal sales of “Wan Jia Ke Jiu Zao buried liquor” by Yafei Liquor Co., Ltd. An investigation found that the company’s owner purchased packaging and base liquor, produced 20 bottles of “Wan Jia Ke Jiu Zao buried liquor” labeled “sealed in 2015, August,” but could not provide supporting evidence. In October 2025, a man in Sichuan paid 300,000 yuan for 12 bottles of “50-year Moutai,” of which five bottles were confirmed fake, with the highest price reaching 28,000 yuan per bottle.

Liquor marketing expert Xiao Zhuqing said that the market is plagued with “fake vintage liquor” issues, and there is no official, widely accepted valuation standard. Even genuine old liquor lacks clear pricing benchmarks, leading to price instability and undermining industry trust.

Beijing Business Today Liu Yibo and Feng Ruonan