Yellow Phosphorus Factory Price Breaks Through 27,000 Yuan/Ton; Phosphate Chemical Sector Gains Against Market Trend, Baichuan Shares Hits Second Consecutive Daily Limit Up in 2 Days

On March 12, the phosphorus chemical sector rose against the trend. As of the latest report, constituent stocks Baichuan Shares (002455.SZ) hit two consecutive daily limits, Hebang Bio (603077.SH) experienced its first limit-up, and Wanyun New Energy (688275.SH), Ruifeng High-Performance Materials (300243.SZ), Hunan Youneng (301358.SZ), Hubei Yihua (000422.SZ), Jiangshan Shares (600389.SH) and others followed the upward trend.

In terms of news, Middle East geopolitical conflicts have led to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off the global sulfur supply chain. Spring planting needs provide some support, but domestic policies to stabilize supply and prices have restrained phosphate fertilizer price increases, putting pressure on corporate profits. Export policies remain uncertain.

Additionally, the ex-factory price of yellow phosphorus from Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan has broken through 27,000 yuan/ton, with the cost of thermal phosphoric acid rising to 7,271 yuan/ton; sulfur prices have increased to 4,500 yuan/ton, pushing up the cost of wet-process phosphoric acid. Tight supply, concentrated downstream demand, and smooth cost transmission have led to significant increases in phosphoric acid quotations.

Industry insiders believe that modern phosphorus chemicals are no longer traditional fertilizer industries but are centered around phosphate ore, covering products such as phosphate fertilizers, phosphoric acid, and phosphate salts. They leverage lithium iron phosphate to enter the new energy sector, becoming a core demand in new energy. The industry is also extending into high-end fields like electronic-grade phosphoric acid and food-grade phosphates, moving toward a “new energy + agriculture + high-end chemicals” integrated development era.

Huatai Securities’ chemical analysis team states that if countries worldwide gradually increase their stockpiling of phosphate resources and glyphosate, it could continue to boost the global phosphate fertilizer market (domestic phosphate fertilizer supply stabilization), while also reversing the domestic glyphosate market trend. Companies with capacity growth potential will have advantages, and investment opportunities in the phosphate industry chain remain optimistic.

(Edited by: Wang Zhiqiang HF013)

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