Gao Hongjun: Is the current position at the top or in the middle of an upward correction?

After the A-shares rose above 4,100 points, market disagreements reached their peak: some believe the index has topped out and should retreat, decisively taking profits and exiting; others firmly believe this is just a continuation of the rally, and are actively increasing positions during the volatility.

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This week’s market fluctuations have left many investors confused, unable to hold their positions, and hesitant to enter outside funds. Is 4,100 points the top or just a consolidation? Why are the tug-of-war between oil prices and tech stocks intensifying?

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What new sectors are worth布局ing now? Today, we will analyze these core questions one by one, providing you with the clearest market judgment and strategic insights.

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1. Weekly Market Review: Consolidation Amid Structural Divergence as the Main Theme

This week, A-shares showed a pattern of high-level consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index oscillating around 4,100 points. It did not break through higher but also did not fall sharply. Trading volume across the two markets remained at trillion-levels, indicating active capital flow.

The most prominent feature was structural differentiation: on one side, soaring international oil prices boosted energy and resource sectors, making them “safe havens” amid the market; on the other, previously leading sectors like technology and computing power experienced adjustments, with some stocks retracing significantly. Market profitability shifted from broad gains to sector-specific rotations.

From capital flows, northbound funds maintained slight net inflows, while main funds actively rotated stocks, shifting from high-valued tech themes to undervalued energy sectors and policy-driven themes. Overall, foreign and domestic capital continued their布局 rhythm without signs of systematic withdrawal.

In summary, this week’s consolidation is not a sign of market weakness but a normal pause after surpassing 4,100 points, preparing for the next phase.

2. How to interpret the tug-of-war between oil prices and tech sectors? The inevitable result of macroeconomic fundamentals

This week, the tug-of-war between oil prices and tech stocks intensified, leaving many investors puzzled: why do tech stocks fall when oil prices rise? In fact, this is not just emotional fluctuation but an inevitable outcome of the underlying macroeconomic logic, forming a complete loop of oil prices - inflation - interest rates - tech stocks.

Crude oil is the lifeblood of modern industry. A sharp rise in oil prices increases costs across the supply chain, acting as a “master switch” for inflation. Rising inflation pressures then trigger concerns about central banks tightening monetary policy, leading to expectations of interest rate hikes.

Tech stocks’ valuations are built on low interest rates and ample liquidity. Their value largely depends on future growth expectations. When interest rate hike expectations increase, it directly reshapes their valuation logic, causing funds to flow from high-valuation tech stocks to lower-risk energy and value sectors.

Simply put, rising oil prices trigger inflation and rate hike expectations, which suppress tech stock valuations. This macro logic has never changed. Understanding this chain helps explain current market fluctuations.

Currently, the consolidation around 4,100 points is just a minor interruption in the upward trend. The core support logic remains unchanged, and the main theme of the market continues to be sectoral opportunities.

Rather than obsessing over whether this is a top or a consolidation, it’s better to focus on clear opportunities: understand the macro logic of oil prices and tech stocks,布局 new policy-driven themes like the computing and energy collaboration, and pay attention to the AI application growth brought by OpenClaw.

Bull markets are never a straight line upward. Fluctuations and consolidations are normal. Only by grasping the core themes can investors navigate volatility and seize subsequent gains.

Therefore, on the evening of March 13 at 7 PM, we specially invited the familiar Gao Hongjun to share:

Topic: Is the current position a top or a continuation?

1. Weekly market review

2. Is the 4,100-point region a top or just a consolidation?

3. How to interpret the tug-of-war between oil prices and tech sectors?

4. Where are the opportunities in computing and energy collaboration?

5. What new markets does OpenClaw bring?

Note: This article is based on publicly available information and the speaker’s outline, and does not represent the personal views of the speaker nor constitute any investment advice. Markets carry risks; decision-making should be cautious.