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Brent crude oil rises above $106 again at the open
While volatility continues in global energy markets, Brent crude oil prices started the new week with a strong rise, climbing above $106 per barrel and once again becoming the focus of investors.
The main reason for this rise in the markets is attributed to increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and, in particular, the growing risks to energy supply. US attacks on targets near Kharg Island, a major Iranian oil export hub, and ongoing military tensions in the region have increased concerns about potential disruptions to oil supply.
Analysts state that security problems in the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil shipments pass, are one of the biggest risk factors in the market. Disruptions to tanker traffic in the strait make it difficult for a significant portion of the world's oil supply to reach the market, putting upward pressure on prices.
In recent weeks, oil prices have experienced sharp fluctuations, with Brent crude oil approaching $120 in some transactions before falling back to the $100 level. However, continued tensions in the region and persistent supply concerns have caused prices to resume their upward trend.
According to experts, it is possible for oil prices to remain at high levels in the short term as uncertainty persists in energy markets. In particular, the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East or new attacks on energy infrastructure could lead to further price surges in the oil market.
Proven reserves (end of 2025)
Venezuela: 303 billion barrels (1st)
Saudi Arabia: 267 billion barrels (2nd)
Iran: 208 billion barrels (3rd)
Canada, Iraq, UAE, and Kuwait also have very high reserves.
Daily production (2025 average, approx.):
USA: 20-22 million barrels/day (leader)
Saudi Arabia: 10-11 million
Russia: 10 million
Iran: 4-5 million (despite sanctions, it varies between 3.9-5.1 million in 2025)
Gulf total (Saudi + UAE + Kuwait + Iraq): around 25-30 million
Latin America: Brazil ~3.7-4 million, Venezuela, despite its reserves, only 0.7-1 million (due to infrastructure + sanctions).
🧐The Gulf countries and some Latin American countries actually have much larger capacities. Iran alone accounts for 4-5% of world production.
So why is there this sentiment that "if Iranian oil runs out, the world will end"? 🤔
The real reason is that the Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical bottleneck.
20-25% of world oil trade (approximately 20-21 million barrels/day) passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This strait:
Is on Iran's southern coast.
Carries almost all of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar's oil exports.
It's not just Iran's own oil; the route for all major producers in the Gulf passes through here.
If Iran says "I will close the strait" or lays mines/attacks ships (which it is currently doing), not only Iran's 4-5 million barrels but also the Gulf's 20+ million barrels are at risk. There are no alternative routes, or they are very inadequate (even Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline doesn't cover 20%). The Strait of Hormuz is not just for "Iranian oil"; it's the gateway for 20% of all Gulf oil and LNG. Iran has the power to act as a "world energy valve." This is precisely why there is panic.
Following US-Israeli operations that have been ongoing since February 2026, Iran announced that it would "close" the Strait of Hormuz on March 4, 2026, and is attacking ships. Oil prices have skyrocketed.
The market isn't saying "Iran's own oil will run out"; it's reacting with "all Gulf oil will be blocked." The Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia, UAE, etc.) are stable because they are allies; Iran, on the other hand, is on the conflict side. Latin America (Venezuela, Brazil) is independent of this strait, so the price increase affects them, but it doesn't create a "resource blockage."
Iran has already been under US/EU sanctions for years, selling its oil to China at a discount (via a shadow fleet) (~1.5 million barrels/day). The sudden loss cannot be compensated for in the short term. Iran's nuclear program, proxy forces like Hezbollah and the Houthis, and tensions with Israel are all contributing factors. The Gulf states are close to the West; Iran is categorized as an "enemy." The market is applying this risk premium.
The oil futures market is inflated by fear. The same thing happened in history (2019 tanker attacks, 2022 tensions). "What kind of maneuvering is going on behind the scenes?"
Actually, it's not a classic "manipulation" (conspiracy), but rather energy geopolitics and security interests:
The US and its allies (including Israel) do not want Iran to establish hegemony in the Gulf. Controlling the Strait of Hormuz means influencing world oil prices. The Gulf states (Saudi Arabia, UAE) are making military agreements with the US and are integrated into the oil dollar system. Iran, on the other hand, has an independent/anti-Western stance. Venezuela in Latin America is also under sanctions, but its geography is distant, and there is no risk to the Strait. Location and risk are more decisive than quantity. Iran alone is not large, but it "holds the key." In the current conflict, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz affects all Gulf countries.