#周末行情分析

Bitcoin struggles to break out of the consolidation pattern, altcoins focus on capital hotspots

The recent weekend market has become increasingly lively. Last night, Bitcoin surged strongly and broke through $73,000 in one go, but then started to pull back, indicating that without significant positive news catalysts, Bitcoin still finds it difficult to break through the large consolidation zone between $65,000 and $73,000.

👉 Technical outlook – macro environment: Don’t forget we are still in a bear market

First, we must face a fact: Bitcoin remains in a bear market cycle. Don’t expect Bitcoin to suddenly break through multiple resistance levels and surge to $80,000 or higher. Currently, each resistance level exerts clear resistance on the price. From the daily chart, the upper Bollinger Band at around 72,500 faces pressure; even if there’s a short-term breakout, a pullback is likely. From the weekly chart, the MA10 at 75,700 is a strong resistance level. Based on the current market conditions, it’s quite difficult for Bitcoin to reach this level. Any price above 72,000 is a good point to short.

👉 News: US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, is the US economy facing a “stagflation” crisis?

Iran launched multiple strikes against US military forces in the Middle East today, while the US bombed key Iranian oil ports. At present, the market has largely digested the impact of the conflict, and Bitcoin has established its own consolidation rhythm. Additionally, the US economy’s risk of entering “stagflation” also influences risk assets. Pay attention to upcoming US economic data to see if it will present further downside risks; if so, it will put downward pressure on crypto prices. Of course, if the US-Iran conflict ends, Bitcoin may have some short-term upward momentum, but breaking through the strong resistance at 75,700 will be challenging. Without significant news changes, the consolidation range is unlikely to be broken in the short term.

👉 Trading advice: Trade high and buy low within the consolidation zone

“Follow the trend”: since the market (whales) has already recognized the $65,000-$73,000 consolidation zone for the short term, let’s follow along. Short-term traders can act: go long below 67,000 with a stop loss below 65,000; go short above 72,000, or aggressively above 70,000 with a stop loss above 75,000.

👉 Altcoins: Mainstream coins still favor high sell and low buy, focus on capital hotspots

Mainstream altcoins have recently been “oscillating together” with Bitcoin. A typical example is Dogecoin, oscillating between 0.086 and 0.11. If you’ve been trading high-sell-low-buy, you’re probably already tired of it.

As for other altcoins, it’s been a “chaotic dance” lately, with capital rotating among strong performers. However, if Bitcoin pulls back in the short term, altcoins also face the risk of a cooling-off in speculative interest. If you participate, be sure to control your positions carefully. You can take small positions and buy dips in strong coins like Trump and RIVER, and set proper stop losses.