Positive Signals Continue As Guangzhou and Shenzhen Real Estate Markets Brew a "Mini Spring"

Securities Times Reporter Wu Jiaming

In early spring March, the real estate market often experiences a wave of optimism known as “Golden March and Silver April.” Whether this “small spring” will arrive as expected has become a focus of market attention.

In response, reporters visited the markets in Guangzhou and Shenzhen and found that behind the stabilization and rebound in transaction data, more and more homebuyers’ expectations for the market are beginning to recover. The “small spring” is brewing.

Reasonable prices and quality products are key

“Driven by the high-priced transactions on the Ma Chang plot in Tianhe, Guangzhou, recent viewing and transaction volumes have increased. Last weekend, nearly 150 groups of visitors visited the project, and the company directly offered discounts on prices to support the ‘small spring,’” said a marketing manager of a new residential project in Tianhe North District. According to incomplete statistics, in early March alone, over 30 new residential projects in Guangzhou launched new listings or had promotional activities.

Recently, the highly anticipated Ma Chang plot in Tianhe was sold for a total of 23.6 billion yuan, acquired by Guangzhou Yuechengda Co., Ltd., a wholly owned subsidiary of Yuexiu Group, with a premium rate of 26.6%. As the planning for the Ma Chang plot advances, the land value in the core area is being re-priced by the market. Recently, the luxury housing market in Guangzhou has also stirred again. Market information shows that Poly Yuexi Bay sold a property with a building area of 670 square meters for a total of 187 million yuan, equivalent to about 280,000 yuan per square meter. I also interviewed marketing personnel from several real estate companies. All of their luxury products, such as large flats and villas in Guangzhou, have recent transaction records.

A report from Zhongyuan Research and Development Department in Guangzhou predicts that after the Spring Festival holiday, new projects will enter the market intensively. Driven by several “hot” projects, the market is likely to see a strong start, with a concentrated opening period expected from March to April. Many of these projects are located in core urban areas, mainly offering improved housing products, which have certain market appeal and are expected to boost transaction recovery. Meanwhile, marketing leaders from several new residential projects in Guangzhou told reporters that their pricing will be more aligned with actual market transaction levels. Only with reasonable prices and quality products are homebuyers willing to enter the market.

Confidence is beginning to recover

In Shenzhen, the second-hand housing market seems to be more lively than new homes. Last week, the second-hand signing volume at Le Youjia stores in Shenzhen increased by 132% month-on-month, reaching the highest level since late March 2025; viewing volume for second-hand homes also hit the highest since mid-October 2024.

According to the latest monitoring data released by Shenzhen Shell Research Institute, in February this year, the number of second-hand homes listed at partner stores decreased by 3.3% year-on-year. “This seemingly small percentage change reflects a gradual increase in market confidence, and irrational selling is decreasing to some extent,” said Xiao Xiaoping, director of Shenzhen Shell Research Institute. This change is expected to help Shenzhen’s real estate market enter a virtuous cycle of “supply optimization—expectation strengthening—price stabilization.” This means the market is easing from the previous period of seller rushes to cash out, which caused an oversupply, and the listed properties are becoming more rational, providing a healthier foundation for market bottoming and recovery. Additionally, in terms of prices, besides the steady rebound of the average transaction price for two months, the listing prices of popular second-hand communities are also beginning to rise slightly.

“Since March, the most obvious recovery has been in high-quality school district homes, followed by second-hand homes with low total prices and high rental yields,” said Chen, a senior agent in the Yuanling area of Futian, Shenzhen. “Currently, transaction prices haven’t changed much; price-to-volume trading remains mainstream. But after several years of decline, more buyers are starting to regain confidence in the market this year. For example, after the holiday, more clients proactively contacted us to view homes than in previous years.”

“After the Lunar New Year, Shenzhen’s real estate market quickly resumed trading, with a better response than in previous years. Our statistics show that the speed of new home sales is slower than last year, with only nine new residential projects obtaining pre-sale permits so far this year, compared to twelve during the same period last year. Therefore, the new home market in Shenzhen is unlikely to form a scale effect this year. Conversely, the second-hand market remains well-supplied and low-priced, with a significantly better trading atmosphere,” said He Qianru, director of the National Research Center at Midland Property. “Additionally, from policy expectations, further relaxation of Shenzhen’s purchase restrictions is also highly likely.”

Requires joint efforts from all parties

According to Li Yujia, chief researcher at Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, recent performance in Guangzhou and Shenzhen’s markets has been positive. “First, second-hand homes are performing better than new homes, with the hot spots in the new home market limited to specific areas; second-hand listings have decreased month-on-month and year-on-year, indicating improving market sentiment and expectations; third, the sustained improvement in the second-hand market has to some extent driven demand for selling old homes and buying new ones, improving market cycles.”

He predicts that March is a traditional peak sales season, with strong transactions driven by post-holiday return, marriage, job seeking, and school enrollment needs. Developers will also launch cost-effective products to pursue a good start for the year. Local governments are expected to take policy actions, such as recent frequent policies on housing provident funds and purchase subsidies, creating a “small peak” in the market in March. However, in terms of transaction structure, low-priced properties still dominate.

According to Centaline Research Institute, based on the China Real Estate Index System’s hundred-city price index, since 2026, the month-on-month decline in second-hand residential prices across hundred cities has been narrowing, showing positive signs. As more cities implement policies, the “small spring” market is worth looking forward to.

Li Yujia believes that to bottom out and stabilize, and to solidify the foundation, concerted efforts are needed from multiple sides. Industry-wide, this includes promoting transaction cycles for both first- and second-hand homes, further reducing transaction costs, and improving the trading environment and order. Fundamentally, restoring residents’ confidence in employment, income, and expectations is also essential.