Personal macro overview for this week (March 8, 2026): To summarize in one sentence, the decision not to participate in the pancake market last week still seems correct. Now, it's just waiting for the outcome of the war (since I don't understand politics, it's roughly waiting to see the oil price result).

In detail, from a medium-term perspective, I continue to hold the same view as last week. The course of the war is unpredictable, but what is certain is that this situation is not comparable to Russia-Ukraine, especially regarding the impact on inflation, which also cannot be analogized. Personally, I believe that overall, the US is still in a monetary easing cycle, with the showy actions for the midterm elections. The core issue is that the process and outcome of this show are becoming increasingly uncontrollable.
The first possible outcome is if oil prices stay high, US consumption will decline, coupled with AI substitution (some companies, especially white-collar workers, are being replaced by data analysis up to 40%, which is also reflected in employment data), potentially leading to a second recession.
The second scenario is if the war ends quickly and oil prices drop, which would be good for the US internally, establishing a strong government image and possibly leading to recovery or even growth.
In any case, once the war becomes uncontrollable and the outcome unpredictable, market risk appetite will inevitably decrease. Later, because assets themselves are good and the logic is sound, the market may rebound (this is not about pancake ); markets tend to fluctuate, and for medium-term strategies, it doesn't matter much).
P.S. I personally think oil has become a safe-haven asset, and sentiment plays a bigger role. Since the war might last longer, if there are issues, everyone can communicate.