What will Bitcoin do next? 2026/3/9

From the perspectives of technical analysis, liquidity, and market sentiment, Bitcoin is currently in a new trading range. As early as last month, when the price was around $60,000, the market was building a new consolidation zone, and it is expected that Bitcoin will fluctuate within a range of approximately $57,000 to $87,000, forming about a 33% volatility box.

This sideways consolidation does not indicate a shift to a strong bullish trend; rather, it seems to be preparing for the market movements in the coming months. Structurally, I still believe that after this period of fluctuation, there is a high probability that the price will break below the box and test the $44,000 to $50,000 area.

Looking back at the 2024 trend, Bitcoin once oscillated within the $58,000 to $74,000 range for an entire year. The existence of this range is very significant, as it provides a key price reference zone for the future bear market. Today’s market has returned to that long-term oscillation zone. The difference is, in a bull market, this might be seen as support; in a bear market structure, this area is more like a phase-based structural level, and ultimately, structures are meant to be broken.

Based on the current rhythm, Bitcoin is likely entering a “buffer rebound phase.” This phase is typically characterized by several weeks of sideways movement, accompanied by periodic upward opportunities.

Comparing the current market with the 2022 trend reveals very similar structures:
1. Bitcoin fell approximately 52% from its all-time high.
2. It then rebounded about 44% from the low.
3. After that, a deeper decline began.

The current situation is almost following the same rhythm: a drop of about 52% from the high, followed by a sideways rebound phase. If this market structure continues along a similar path, there is still some room for upward rebound in the coming months, but the overall trend remains biased toward further decline, potentially breaking below $60,000.

From an emotional perspective, this logic also holds. Currently, market sentiment has entered an extreme fear zone. Before the next significant downturn occurs, the market often needs to generate new liquidity—both to attract more capital from above and to continue accumulating stop-loss liquidity below. For market makers, pushing the market into a “sideways repair period” is a very common tactic.

Current Strategy and Trading Plan

I still maintain my view that Bitcoin will fluctuate within the $57,000 to $87,000 range. My main trading plan is to buy within the $57,000 to $60,000 zone, which is the lower boundary of the current box.

A few weeks ago, my buy orders at $60,000 were filled, and most recently, I added positions near $68,000.

It’s important to understand that the bottom of the box does not necessarily mean the market’s final bottom; it’s just the current phase’s low point.

The purpose of these buys is mainly to capture short-term rebound profits, not for long-term investment.

For example:
- The $60K buy is currently about 12% in profit.
- The $68K buy has experienced a slight retracement of about 2%.

Does this mean the price will definitely reach $88,000? Not necessarily! It only indicates two things:

1. The $57,000 to $60,000 zone is the low point of the rebound correction phase, and the market is likely to oscillate around this area.
2. If market sentiment and liquidity conditions permit, the theoretical upper limit of this rebound could be near $88,000.

If the price indeed returns to around $88,000 in the future, I would consider increasing short positions in that zone.

Position Strategy and Execution Logic

Many people like to make trading very complicated, but in my view, the logic is actually quite simple. Some may wonder: since I believe Bitcoin might ultimately break below $50,000, why am I still buying now?

The reason is straightforward: markets never move in a straight line. Even in a bear market, strong rebound rallies often occur.

Looking back at the 2022 trend is very illustrative: Bitcoin fell from $68,000 down to $33,000 with almost no significant pause. But then, within just two months, it rebounded from $33,000 to $48,500, nearly a 50% increase. After that rebound, the price continued to decline, eventually bottoming at $16,000.

Markets always operate this way.

The current environment remains in a bear cycle. These phase-based rebounds are essentially about re-accumulating liquidity in the market to prepare for the next decline.

My ultimate target for this bear market remains unchanged: Bitcoin may finally establish a true bottom around the $40,000 zone.

Before that, my strategy is clear:
1. Use most funds to buy spot positions in the $57,000–$60,000 range in stages for a rebound.
2. Use low leverage (1.2–1.5x) contracts to improve capital efficiency.

In simple terms, it’s about trading the oscillation rebound similarly to spot trading.