Fidelity Digital Assets has published a research report indicating that the four-year classic bull and bear cycle in #البيتكوين has ended.

The key findings: The market capitalization of Bitcoin reached $2.5 trillion at its peak in October 2025, but the realized volatility over one year reached 17, setting a new record low in January 2026. This has never happened so quickly after reaching new all-time highs in previous cycles.

The demand structure has changed dramatically. Now, public companies and investment funds hold nearly 12% of the circulating supply, with most of this accumulation occurring after 2023. Forty-nine public companies each hold more than 1,000 Bitcoin. The leading ETF reached $75 billion in assets under management in less than two years, while the GLD fund took about seven years to reach the same figure.

On the network, the MVRV ( indicator, which measures the relationship between market value and realized value, has remained around twice the realized value throughout the current bull market. In 2013, it reached six times, and in 2017 and 2021, it reached four times. If it only reaches four times in this cycle, that implies a market cap of $4.5 trillion and a price of about $225,000 per Bitcoin.

Fidelity also created a new indicator called the "Profit-to-Volatility Ratio," which has remained above 0.015 since late 2023, the longest stable period in Bitcoin's history. Even the dip in February 2026 below $70,000 did not affect this indicator.

Conclusion: Major declines of 80% and peak surges may be a thing of the past. What replaces them is a slower, gradual rise with less severe pullbacks. Bitcoin is beginning to behave less like a speculative gamble and more like a mature asset.

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