Zhang Yaoxi: Concerns over the prolongation of geopolitical risks and weakening of gold bullish momentum still fueling upward potential

Zhang Yaoxi: Long-term geopolitical risks concern, weakening gold bullish momentum still building for upward movement
On the previous trading day, Wednesday (March 4): International gold prices stabilized and rebounded, supported by a weaker US dollar index, escalating Middle East conflicts, US Defense Secretary: US-Iran conflict could last 8 weeks or longer, etc. However, technical resistance levels, along with US February ADP employment data exceeding expectations and increasing by 63,000 from the previous period, pressured gold prices, causing a retreat. The bulls failed to stabilize and strengthen, and the future trend, before breaking through moving average resistance, will be treated with oscillation and volatility.
Specifically, gold opened at $5103.76 per ounce in the Asian session, initially hitting a low of $5084.95, then rebounding. After reaching an intraday high of $5205.58 in the European session, it faced resistance and pulled back, continuing into the US session with narrow-range oscillation and recovery, finally closing at $5140.89. The daily range was $120.63, with a gain of $37.13, up 0.73%.
Looking ahead to Thursday (March 5): International gold continued to show strength, extending the rebound from the previous night’s close. Additionally, the US dollar index opened weaker, providing some support. Focus will remain on short-term moving average resistance and Bollinger Band upper band resistance.

Today’s data to watch includes US initial jobless claims for the week ending February 28 (in ten-thousands), US January import price index month-over-month, and US February Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. Current expectations are that initial claims will be positive for gold, but yesterday’s ADP data suggests a likely reversal to negative. If the import price index shows a rebound, it could heighten inflation concerns and support gold prices. Therefore, US market movements are expected to be more oscillatory.
However, Zhang Yaoxi believes: Although previous inflation concerns delayed the Fed’s rate cuts, suppressing gold’s financial attributes and causing a dip, rising inflation will also enhance gold’s commodity attributes, which is positive for gold. Short-term pressure is unlikely to cause a sustained trend. Moreover, Fed rate cuts are only postponed, not ended or turned into rate hikes. The overall outlook remains bullish for gold.
Furthermore, the ADP report showed private US employment growth in February exceeded expectations, but January data was significantly revised downward. This could lead to the February non-farm payroll report meeting or falling below expectations, which would be positive for gold.

Currently, there are no signs of substantive de-escalation in geopolitical conflicts. Strong macroeconomic data cannot mask the main geopolitical theme. As long as conflicts continue, gold’s status as the ultimate safe-haven asset will strengthen, likely pushing it toward new all-time highs.
If Iran shows genuine negotiation sincerity and oil prices fall rapidly, or if the upcoming US non-farm payroll data greatly exceeds expectations, gold may only face phase adjustments. Overall, the long-term logic of gold as a core asset remains solid amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, inflation worries, central bank gold purchases, and potential de-dollarization trends. Gold’s safe-haven and inflation-hedging properties remain irreplaceable. Historically, gold has never been absent during major crises. By 2026, gold will continue its bull market story.
Technically, on a monthly chart, gold in February continued the downward trend from January, plunging again after a false top. However, after touching the resistance turned support of the upward trend established earlier this year, it rebounded, negating the bearish outlook. Although it retreated slightly this month, it remains above the 5-month moving average, still within a bullish space with a good outlook. Moving forward, it is expected to stay above the upward trend line and potentially climb to new highs.
On a weekly chart, despite encountering resistance and pulling back this week, gold rebounded after testing support below the 5-week moving average. The overall trend remains upward. If it further declines, support levels at the 5- and 10-week moving averages and the middle band of Bollinger Bands offer short-term entry opportunities.
On the daily chart, gold has stabilized and rebounded. Although it retraced yesterday, the pattern suggests a bottoming formation with bullish expectations, indicating a bias toward buying at the lows and aiming to recover losses and challenge new highs. Support levels include the 30- and 60-day moving averages for phased entry opportunities.

Gold: support around $5100 or $5040; resistance near $5230 or $5280;
Silver: support around $82.70 or $81.10; resistance near $86.70 or $89.30;
Note:
Gold TD = (International gold price × exchange rate) / 31.1035
A $1 fluctuation in international gold price roughly causes a $0.25 change in Gold TD (theoretically).

US futures gold price = London spot price × (1 + gold swap rate × days to expiry / 365)
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The above opinions and analyses are solely the author’s personal views, for reference only, not trading advice. Operate at your own risk.
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