Will there be a third wave of downward trend for BTC?

To start with the result: there definitely will be, but not in the short term.
The next downward trend for Bitcoin is likely to be driven down by the US stock market.
Major AI leaders in the US stock market have invested too heavily in AI,
leading to a significant reduction in free cash flow.
However, stock prices remain high, so the true P/E ratio is very high.
Profitable investments have not translated into increased profits.
There is still no clear way to profit from AI.
Factors like the yen interest rate hikes and the Fed's balance sheet reduction constantly threaten liquidity.
I also believe the US stock market is nearing a correction.
Since the bottom of the tariff stand last year,
the S&P 500 has rebounded from 4800 to 7000, a 45% increase.
It has been hovering around 6800-7000 for nearly three months without breaking through.
In the two previous midterm election years, it dropped over 20%.
Although Trump is supporting the market this time,
I estimate it will still fall by about 10%.
There will definitely be a break below 60,000.
Some people say 60,000 is the bottom,
but from peak to bottom, it only takes four months to fall.
I believe it will break below 60,000.
A lower point might even fall below 50,000.
Back to the price range of 40,000–50,000 after ETF listing.