#比特币创下近一月内新高

Crypto Market Pullback from Highs: Consolidation Amid Macro Pressure and Unlocking Waves

On March 6, 2026, after a strong rebound driven by policy positive news the previous day, the cryptocurrency market overall shows a pullback from high levels today. Bitcoin (BTC) price retreated to around $71,000, with Ethereum (ETH) following the market weakness. Profit-taking and consolidation have intensified the bulls and bears' tug-of-war.

1. Market Overview: High-Level Pullback, Increasing Bull-Bear Tension

As of this morning, leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin is quoted at approximately $71,000, down from a high of $73,555 within 24 hours. Ethereum also retraced, trading around $2,070. The total market capitalization fell back to about $2.82 trillion, down 3.4% in 24 hours.

The pullback was accompanied by increased trading volume, with the total liquidation of contracts across the network reaching $521 million in 24 hours. Long positions accounted for 65% of liquidations, indicating some leverage was cleaned out, and market disagreement has increased.

This correction is mainly influenced by three factors:

Macro Pressure: U.S. February ADP employment data exceeded expectations, raising the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in March to 97.3%. Rate hike expectations are pushed back to July, and the dollar has strengthened, suppressing risk assets.

Mass Unlocking Selling Pressure: Over $6 billion worth of tokens are expected to unlock throughout March, including about $317 million from Hyperliquid (HYPE) today. WhiteBIT (WBT) alone accounts for nearly 70% of project unlocks, creating significant short-term supply pressure.

Technical Profit-Taking: After breaking above $73,000, Bitcoin faced dual pressure from previous trapped positions and short-term profit-taking, requiring technical consolidation.

2. Key Influencing Factors Analysis

1. Policy Support as a Foundation, Mid-term Trend Unchanged

Despite short-term pressure, the mid-term policy outlook remains positive. Legislation such as the U.S. CLARITY Act for crypto market structure is expected to pass by mid-year, providing regulatory clarity for the industry. The White House crypto summit is scheduled for March 7, with market expectations for more policy details. Meanwhile, Hong Kong will issue its first stablecoin licenses in March, and the EU’s MiCA regulation will fully take effect on March 25, accelerating global compliance and boosting long-term confidence.

2. Improved Capital Structure, but Institutional Entry Slows

Bitcoin spot ETF fund outflows have recently eased, with some days seeing inflows of about $500 million. On-chain data shows that long-term holders’ selling speed has dropped to the lowest since June 2025, indicating bottom-level holdings are stabilizing. However, overall institutional capital remains cautious, with slower entry pace, and the market mainly relies on existing funds for trading.

3. Market Sentiment and Technical Structure

CryptoQuant research indicates that recent upward movements resemble a short-term “relief rally” driven by easing selling pressure rather than the start of a new bull cycle. Technical indicators show Bitcoin’s daily MACD has a bullish crossover but not yet confirmed, RSI is around 50 in neutral territory, and the 4-hour Bollinger Bands are tightening with prices near the middle band, indicating a short-term sideways pattern.

3. Technical Analysis and Key Levels

Bitcoin (BTC)

Trend Judgment: The 4-hour chart shows a high-level correction, while the daily remains above the 20-day moving average (~$70,000), so the medium-term rebound structure remains intact.

Key Support: First support at $71,000 (intraday low), strong support at $70,000 (20-day MA and psychological level). If broken, further decline to around $68,000 is possible.

Key Resistance: First resistance at $72,500, strong resistance at $73,500–$74,000 (yesterday’s high and upper Bollinger Band).

Ethereum (ETH)

Trend Judgment: Follows Bitcoin’s correction, with the 4-hour moving averages still in a bullish arrangement but turning downward; watch the 20-day MA at $2,050 for support.

Key Support: First support at $2,050–$2,080, strong support at $2,000 (psychological level).

Key Resistance: First resistance at $2,120, strong resistance at $2,180.

4. Trading Strategies and Risk Alerts

Overall Approach: The market is in a wide-range consolidation pattern supported by policy positives and capped by macro pressures. Trading should focus on buying dips, strictly controlling chasing risks, waiting for key support signals to stabilize, entering lightly in stages, and setting strict stop-losses.

Specific Strategies:

Bitcoin (BTC): Watch for price retracement to $70,500–$71,500 with signs of stabilization (e.g., hourly bullish candles, volume increase). Consider staged long entries. Stop-loss below $70,000 (if broken below the 20-day MA, exit). Targets: first at $72,500, second at $73,500. Consider partial profit-taking at the first target.

Ethereum (ETH): When price stabilizes around $2,050–$2,080, consider staged long entries. Stop-loss below $2,020. Targets: first at $2,120, second at $2,180.

Risk Warnings:

Macro Risks: U.S. February non-farm payroll data will be released tonight. If data exceeds expectations strongly, it could further reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance, pressuring risk assets.

Event Risks: The White House crypto summit on March 7 may release important policy signals, causing market volatility. It’s advisable to hold light positions or avoid overnight holdings during U.S. trading hours.

Unlocking Selling Pressure: Continuous large token unlocks in March (especially WBT) may exert ongoing pressure on market sentiment and prices.

Summary: Today’s market correction results from the digestion of policy positives, macro pressures, and technical adjustments. Short-term expectations are for wide-range oscillation within key support and resistance zones. Investors should remain patient, cautiously position after support confirmation, strictly control leverage and holdings, prioritize mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, and closely monitor macro data and policy developments.
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