Analyst dismisses the 2026 Bitcoin crash scenario, pointing out overlooked signals

Michaël van de Poppe, one of the most renowned cryptocurrency analysts, has offered a different outlook on Bitcoin’s prospects in 2026. Instead of agreeing with the common view of an inevitable “catastrophic crash,” he dismisses this scenario with arguments based on real data and historical cycle analysis.

Why the 4-year Bitcoin cycle no longer applies

According to Van de Poppe, one of the main market mistakes is over-reliance on Bitcoin’s classic 4-year cycle model. This dismissal is based on the recognition that market structure has significantly changed, with a strong emergence of institutional capital.

Looking back at previous periods, Bitcoin has indeed experienced sharp declines: 30% in 2014, 74% in 2018, and 64% in 2022. These figures naturally raise concerns about a similar downturn in 2026. However, the analyst believes history does not necessarily repeat in the same pattern. The current cycle has deviated from traditional models, partly due to fundamental changes in the nature of market participants.

Capital flow from gold to Bitcoin: A signal many overlook

One of Van de Poppe’s most interesting observations is the divergence between gold and Bitcoin in recent months. Gold has surpassed historic highs with massive capital inflows, while Bitcoin appears to be lagging. However, the analyst does not see this as a sign of weakness but as an opportunity.

History shows that similar phases—when gold “outperforms” Bitcoin—are often followed by strong rallies in higher-risk assets, including Bitcoin. With gold’s value increasing by trillions of dollars, this suggests that the enormous liquidity could soon find its way into digital assets. Rejecting the idea that Bitcoin will be abandoned, Van de Poppe emphasizes that Bitcoin still has the potential to outperform gold in a high-liquidity environment.

Technical indicators and macroeconomic context

On the technical side, Van de Poppe notes that Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered oversold territory—an uncommon situation in history. Data indicates that RSI levels like this often coincide with market bottoms, making them good entry points.

From a macroeconomic perspective, extreme factors are often used to justify the fading bearish outlook. Rising unemployment, falling bond yields, and increased liquidity demand from central banks—all these factors force interest rates downward. Especially in the US, a weakening labor market and government debt burdens create an environment conducive to risk assets.

Compared to the money supply (M2), both Bitcoin and gold are not overvalued. This dismisses the argument that these assets are overpriced and due for a deep correction.

Realistic outlook for Bitcoin in 2026

With all these factors, Van de Poppe believes the overall picture does not support an “inevitable major crash” in 2026. Instead, data suggests the market is closer to a surprising recovery than a downturn at this point.

Bitcoin’s current price is around $70,890 (as of March 6, 2026), and if it can approach $100,000, the bullish trend could accelerate quickly. The reason is that investors are currently pessimistic and ready to re-enter the market once the trend is confirmed.

Finally, Van de Poppe admits that it’s impossible to be certain whether 2026 will be a year of gains or losses. However, the data-driven picture shows stability and the potential for positive surprises rather than a catastrophic collapse. This also explains why widespread market pessimism should be reconsidered, and potential opportunities re-evaluated.