It's been a long time since I last wrote an article, so today I will briefly discuss who is the king of safe-haven assets between “Gold” and “BTC.”

The story begins with a discussion in the group chat in early February. Student A proposed the view that “BTC is digital gold and a safe-haven asset.” Student B countered, “Only gold is a true safe-haven asset; cryptocurrencies are all risk assets.” Student C then said, “Precious metals like gold and silver have experienced sharp rises and falls recently, so they don’t count as safe-haven assets.” Who is right and who is wrong?
First, let’s clarify a concept: ignoring the “cycle” when discussing safe-haven assets is purely reckless. The reason why gold is widely accepted as the king of safe-haven assets is based on a “10-year” cycle. In the short term, precious metals like gold and silver can also experience intense volatility. For example, from late January to early February this year, as shown in (, gold and silver were not considered safe-haven assets. Most of the retail investors chasing gains and selling in panic have no long-term holding plans.
Second, whether BTC is a safe-haven asset depends on the cycle. When viewed over a 10-year cycle, Bitcoin has been around for less than 20 years, and it has only become a mainstream investment target in recent years. It’s premature to define it as a safe-haven asset now. It can be said that BTC, due to its scarcity, has certain anti-inflation and safe-haven properties. In the short term, during periods of sharp rises and falls in gold and silver, BTC also declines steadily and is not a safe-haven asset.
Finally, with the development of blockchain technology, tokenized gold, silver, and stocks have all been on-chain, and related derivative markets have rapidly developed. The liquidation amount of silver perpetual contracts has even exceeded that of BTC and ETH, as shown in ), and the liquidation of gold-related derivatives is also significant. It’s important to note that these precious metal tokens and BTC have vastly different market sizes in the crypto space.
In summary, discussing safe-haven assets must consider the cycle. In the long term, gold remains the undisputed king of safe-haven assets, while BTC still needs time to accumulate. In the short term, especially now, gold is not a safe-haven asset. Driven by short squeezes and speculation, gold’s volatility even exceeds that of BTC during the same period. Investment should be cautious; avoid blindly chasing gains and panic selling.