Galaxy Securities: The probability of the A-share market fluctuating upward after the holiday is relatively high

Galaxy Securities Research Report believes that after the Spring Festival, with policy expectations, liquidity support, and industry trend catalysts, the probability of the market oscillating upward is high. At the same time, close attention should be paid to short-term disturbances to market sentiment caused by overseas uncertainties. Before and after the Two Sessions, the A-share market may be driven primarily by policy catalysts, with capital competing around policy-guided industry main lines and thematic opportunities, showing characteristics of “policy hot spots rotating and style switching rapidly.” The market logic in March will gradually shift from “policy expectations” to “performance realization,” with the disclosure of listed companies’ 2025 annual reports and subsequent 2026 Q1 reports becoming market anchors. Stocks with performance exceeding expectations may attract capital focus.

In terms of allocation opportunities, focus on: First main line, the “anti-involution” concept driven by improved supply-demand patterns and industry profit recovery, as well as dividend assets with valuation safety margins. The allocation logic remains clear, and it is recommended to pay attention to non-ferrous metals (precious metals), the oil and petrochemical industry benefiting from price increases, as well as basic chemicals, steel, cement, building materials, and financial sectors. Second main line, during the Spring Festival holiday, hotspots such as robotics and AI large models received widespread attention, and post-holiday, structural highlights may emerge. As the unprecedented global changes accelerate, the domestic economic logic shifts toward new quality productivity, with key areas such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, new energy, military industry, and aerospace worth关注.