The macro outlook for altcoins remains negative, and recent days have provided strong evidence of this through other indices. After closing the weekly chart below the 18 billion region and trading below the 21-day EMA and 50-day SMA on the monthly chart—both of which serve as negative macro signals—other indices have conducted bearish retests of the 18 billion-20 billion zone and faced rejection again. Since the dominance of other assets is overbought on multiple higher timeframes(HTFs) and may form bearish divergences, altcoins could lose more relative strength against the broader market in the short term, which might have a greater impact on the indices.

I believe the 16 billion-15 billion range could be an interesting short-term zone where the index might form some bullish divergences, providing a short-term respite for altcoins. However, overall, I expect the index to fluctuate at least toward 13 billion in the coming weeks, and possibly even lower, depending on the recovery of BTC and its dominance—ideally staying above 20 billion-22 billion. Given the macro outlook for these altcoin indices, the long-term watch zones we shared in the series are significantly below current levels#巴西提出国家比特币储备替代案