Wheat Market Signals Mixed Outlook as Tuesday's Trade Begins with Divergent Futures Performance

Tuesday morning’s wheat market opened with a tale of two directions. Soft wheat futures in Chicago climbed into positive territory, while their hard red winter counterparts in Kansas City remained under pressure. This divergence reflects ongoing uncertainty within the wheat market as traders digest fresh export data and assess supply dynamics across North America’s key production regions.

Soft Wheat Rallies as Hard Red Winter Contracts Face Headwinds

Chicago SRW wheat futures surrendered 6 to 7 cents in the front months during Monday’s close, though open interest expanded by 695 contracts, signaling fresh participation. The KC HRW futures sustained more significant losses, sliding 10 to 11 cents in the front months with open interest declining 7,313 contracts—predominantly in the March position. Minneapolis spring wheat also retreated, losing 5 to 6 cents on the day. However, Tuesday morning brought a modest recovery in soft wheat prices while hard red winter remained confined to lower levels.

Export Data Underscores Wheat Market Momentum Through January

Monday’s Export Inspections report provided important context for the wheat market’s recent trajectory. The data revealed 351,001 MT (12.9 million bushels) of wheat shipped during the week of January 22, representing an 11.76% decline from the previous week but still tracking above year-ago levels in cumulative terms. South Korea emerged as the primary destination with 119,036 MT, followed by Japan at 73,230 MT and Mexico at 63,773 MT.

The marketing year total now stands at 16.33 MMT (600.05 million bushels), marking an 18.21% increase against the equivalent period last year. This sustained pace suggests robust demand within the wheat market despite periodic weakness in nearby contracts. USDA Export Sales data from Friday reinforced this picture, showing 21.03 MMT of wheat commitments through January 15—an 18% year-over-year gain and approximately 86% of the USDA’s official projection, aligning closely with historical sales velocity.

Futures Pricing Reflects Prevailing Market Uncertainty

March CBOT wheat closed at $5.22½, down 7 cents from the previous session, while May CBOT wheat settled at $5.32¾, losing 6¼ cents. KC wheat futures displayed greater weakness, with March KCBT wheat at $5.29¾ (down 11 cents) and May KCBT at $5.40½ (down 10 cents). Minneapolis spring wheat showed the steadiest performance, with March MIAX wheat closing at $5.70¾ (down 5¼ cents) and May MIAX at $5.82½ (down 5¼ cents). Tuesday’s early action has seen modest price adjustments from these overnight levels, maintaining the wheat market’s prevailing cautious tone.