Recently, the market trend simply replicates the mid-2022 movement. Those with insight can observe the late May to June and the oscillating trend from June to July of 2022 as a reference; oscillations can also generate some profits.

The trouble is with the Nasdaq's trend. In late February, a mild rebound was still expected. But in March and early April, the outlook is not optimistic. Over the past month, the Dow hit new highs, but the Nasdaq did not. This is a typical divergence between markets of similar types. Only after the risks in tech stocks are fully released will cryptocurrencies be relatively safe. Considering that the Nasdaq's peak occurred at the end of October last year, the adjustment period is actually sufficient; it just depends on the magnitude.
Currently, concerns about tech stocks mainly focus on the excessive future investments in AI, to the point where even giants need to borrow. Although past financial reports confirm that AI investments can bring corresponding returns, market worries are normal if future investment gains surpass market expectations significantly. The simplest way to dispel market fears is on the day of the next quarterly earnings reports, mainly from the four largest tech companies: Meta, Microsoft, Google, and Amazon. Next are Oracle and TSMC. If the earnings reports confirm that the additional investments made in the past also generate equivalent AI revenue, market expectations can gradually reverse. Currently, the surge in CDS (credit default swap) trading volume among giants reflects this logic—buying credit insurance in advance.
Subjectively, I still lean toward the AI bubble not bursting in the first half of the year. If there is a significant sell-off in March and April, I would consider it an opportunity. That’s my current view.