Joint Strategy for Ceasefire: Ukraine and the West Plan Response in Three Phases

Ukraine and its Western partners have developed a coordinated plan to respond immediately to any future ceasefire violations by Russia, according to diplomatic sources. The understanding was solidified through discussions involving representatives from Kyiv, European capitals, and Washington during the transition period between December and January, focusing on building a multi-layered defensive strategy against potential Russian breaches.

Diplomatic Agreement Sets Framework for Military Intervention

The agreement establishes a structured protocol with three response levels, starting with diplomatic warnings and escalating to coordinated military actions if hostilities continue. Three sources involved in the negotiations revealed details of the strategy, which will be tested in talks scheduled in Abu Dhabi involving representatives from Kyiv, Moscow, and U.S. authorities.

The Western coalition is preparing to act on multiple fronts, depending on the severity and nature of the possible violation. This understanding marks a turning point in Ukraine’s relations with its allies, establishing for the first time a clear mechanism for automatic response to infractions.

24-Hour Protocol: Initial Responses to Ceasefire Violations

The first phase of the response unfolds within a 24-hour window after any initial violation. This period includes formal warnings through diplomatic channels, followed by actions from Ukrainian forces to contain the breach. The goal of this stage is to signal to Russia the immediate consequences of ceasefire breaches and to offer an opportunity to retreat before escalation.

If Russia persists in its actions, the mechanism automatically advances to the second phase, involving the mobilization of a “coalition of volunteers” composed of military contingents from EU member states, along with contributions from the United Kingdom, Norway, Iceland, and Turkey.

Western Coalition Ready to Escalate in 72 Hours

If violations escalate to larger military operations, Western-supported forces, including units from the U.S. military, will implement coordinated military actions within 72 hours of the initial breach. This third response level represents the point of full militarization of the defense mechanism.

The strategy reflects the Western coalition’s determination to ensure strict implementation of any future ceasefire agreement. Authorities emphasized that this plan does not constitute preventive interference but rather a calibrated and proportional response to specific ceasefire violations, with each phase providing an opportunity for de-escalation before the next step is triggered.