Precious Metals and Industrial Commodities Poised for Strong Rally Throughout 2026

CITIC Securities has released an extensive analysis projecting substantial price appreciation across the precious and industrial metals complex through 2026. The outlook reflects a consensus view that multiple macro factors—from supply-side constraints to robust demand patterns—will support higher valuations across a diverse commodity spectrum.

Supply Constraints Set to Elevate Base and Precious Metal Prices

The foundation of CITIC’s bullish case rests on tight supply-demand dynamics. Gold is projected to reach $6,000 per ounce, driven by its enduring role as a monetary asset and its persistent appeal as a safe-haven instrument during periods of market uncertainty. Silver, benefiting from extreme global shortages and heightened trading activity, is expected to surge to $120 per ounce, reflecting strong price elasticity amid supply pressures.

In the industrial metals space, copper and aluminum emerge as key beneficiaries of structural inventory lows and resilient demand. Copper is forecast to average $12,000 per ton, while aluminum is anticipated to trade at 23,000 yuan per ton (approximately $1.60 per pound at current exchange rates). Both metals face genuine supply headwinds, with production bottlenecks in key jurisdictions limiting the ability to meet underlying consumption demands.

Battery Metals and Energy Storage Fueling New Price Discovery

The energy storage revolution is reshaping price expectations for battery-critical commodities. Lithium prices are projected to range between 120,000 and 200,000 yuan per ton as demand for energy storage batteries accelerates globally. Cobalt, subject to quota reductions in major producing regions, is expected to reach 400,000 to 500,000 yuan per ton. Indonesian nickel quota restrictions present another supply-side catalyst, with nickel prices anticipated to climb to $22,000 per ton.

Strategic and Rare Commodities Command Premium Valuations

Rare earths, tungsten, tin, and natural uranium round out CITIC’s commodity outlook, each positioned to benefit from tight supply conditions and elevated strategic premiums. Rare earth elements are targeted at 600,000 to 800,000 yuan per ton, reflecting their critical role in renewable energy and defense applications. Tungsten and tin are forecast in the 450,000-550,000 yuan and 450,000-500,000 yuan per ton ranges, respectively. Natural uranium is projected to reach $100 per pound, driven by persistent supply-demand imbalances and growing nuclear energy demand.

The overarching theme across all commodity classes is straightforward: structural supply constraints, coupled with resilient end-user demand and strategic importance, create a backdrop for sustained price appreciation. Investors and market participants monitoring commodity exposure should carefully track quarterly production figures and inventory metrics as leading indicators of price trajectory shifts.