BTC Under Pressure: First Stress Test for American Spot ETFs

After Bitcoin dropped 16% since the end of January, the market is experiencing a critical moment. At the current price of $68,800 (with a daily increase of +5.39%), the first real stress test for buyers through ETF instruments is beginning. This is not just a correction — it’s a test of whether institutional investors can hold their positions or if mass panic will break the recovery momentum.

Break below $84K and the first blow to ETF holders

BTC has fallen below the average cost basis of U.S. spot ETF holders, which is approximately $84K. This means realizing net unrealized losses for buyers through ETF products. For the first time since the massive influx of institutional funds, a real stress test is occurring: will major players buy the dip or will panic and sell off take over?

The social media sentiment has reached maximum bearishness — the most negative retail sentiment since the crash on November 21. The flow of FUD and misinformation has sharply increased, which is typical in situations where the market temporarily moves against the prevailing narrative. However, history shows that after such spikes of distrust, the market often forms a local bottom and then recovers.

Extreme forecasts as a fear indicator rather than reality

Amid uncertainty, extreme estimates are emerging — up to scenarios with BTC at $25K in 2026. Such forecasts reflect not fundamental analysis but the current level of panic fear. They serve more as psychological market indicators rather than well-founded predictions.

The current rebound structure resembles two previous cases where waves of misinformation were followed by recovery. The market is in a transitional phase: retail fear is high, ETFs are under serious pressure for the first time, but conditions like these often create zones of asymmetric risk-reward.

Observation instead of emotion: the key to finding entry points

The main focus now is to monitor reactions to dips, not panic calls on social media. How institutional buyers respond to the $84K test will show whether they are willing to use dips as opportunities or if their confidence is finally broken. Conditions like these create opportunities for serious recovery or, conversely, deepen the bearish trend. The first real stress test for American ETF holders has begun — the final outcome will become clear in the coming weeks.