Since falling below 60,000, the market has been in a repair phase. Based on on-chain data, the realized losses in this cycle have nearly reached a historical high, while the proportion of profitable supply has dropped to 55%. Nearly half of Bitcoin is in a trapped state (a figure close to this in previous cycles is a typical bottom indicator).

Last week, risk assets were severely compressed. The strong rebound after the sharp decline was not primarily driven by BTC itself but more like a passive follow of high-leverage assets in US stocks and precious metals. Tech stocks and gold/silver stabilized, and the crypto market naturally rebounded as well... The reason for such a strong rebound is fundamentally due to extremely bearish options skewness and macro shifts forcing short covering. There is no long-term bullish pricing behavior, nor active spot market entry. The remaining reasons, as we discussed yesterday, are driven by leveraged contracts, making the high points very fragile.

So far, no breakdown of local highs or lows has occurred, and there are no signs of further upward momentum today. The sustainability of the rebound is questionable, possibly waiting for tomorrow’s non-farm payroll report. The price of 75k is likely the limit, so we’ll take it step by step.