February 5, 2026 12:00 (UTC+8), ETH current price $2105, 24-hour low $2070, down approximately 5.2%, hitting a 9-month low, bearish channel strengthened, oversold without effective correction, main strategy is rebound shorting, spot trading only with strong support and very light positions for testing, risk control prioritized.

📊 Quantitative structure and core indicators (multi-timeframe resonance)

- Key levels: Strong resistance at $2150-2180 (4-hour Bollinger middle band + breakdown resistance), secondary resistance at $2200-2230 (20-day moving average); strong support at $2070 (intraday low), critical support at $2050, stop-loss support at $2000
- Quantitative indicators: RSI(14)26-28 (extreme oversold, rebound with low volume hard to reverse); MACD(daily) death cross deepening, bearish momentum not reduced; volume decreasing on down moves, rebound with decreasing volume, buying support weak
- Structural pattern: 4-hour Bollinger opening downward, price moving along lower band, bearish channel reinforced; daily chart shows bearish arrangement, no stabilization candles, accelerated decline after breakdown

⚙️ Trading strategies (by type, risk control first)

1. Contract trading (aggressive, triggered by quantitative signals)

- Opening: Gradually short on rebound at $2150-2180, exit upon breaking $2200
- Risk control: Stop loss at $2200, single position ≤2%, disable high leverage
- Targets: First target $2080-2070, watch for breakdown at $2050, if lost, target $2000
- Closing: Reduce position by 50% at target levels, move stop-loss for remaining position; no bottom fishing without reversal

2. Spot positioning (conservative, structural stabilization testing)

- Principles: Bearish trend not broken, very light positions in batches, anchored at support
- Building position: Establish at $2070 with a daily bullish candle (1%), add another 1% on retest of $2050 with bottom divergence
- Total position: ≤2%, keep sufficient funds for volatility
- Stop-loss: Unconditionally exit if price effectively breaks below $2000

3. Mid-term positioning (value-oriented, structural reversal re-engagement)

- Premise: Daily volume contraction with bottom divergence, effective support at $2000, forming a consolidation platform
- Targets: Stabilize around $2200-2250; if breaking below $2000, medium-term target $1900-1800, wait for weekly correction before re-entering
- Position size: Build in batches, each batch ≤2%

⚠️ Risk control key points

- Light contract positions + strict stop-loss to prevent extreme volatility liquidation
- Volume shrinking on rebounds, beware of quick pullbacks, control slippage
- Coordinate with BTC and macro environment, news may intensify volatility
#当前行情抄底还是观望？ $ETH