Soybean Futures Pull Back Tuesday Morning Amid Mixed Market Signals

Soybean futures are retreating modestly by 1 to 2 cents in Tuesday morning trading, after recording notable advances earlier in the week. The pullback reflects a period of consolidation following the previous session’s momentum, with March contracts declining marginally 4 3/4 cents for the full week. Trading activity remains robust, as Friday’s preliminary open interest expanded by 5,478 contracts, signaling continued participant engagement in the market.

The cmdtyView national average cash bean price climbed 5 1/4 cents to $9.87 1/4, reflecting underlying strength in the physical market despite the modest futures decline on Tuesday morning. Related products showed mixed performance: soymeal futures posted substantial gains of 80 cents to $2.40 higher despite March falling $13.70 over the week, while soy oil futures declined 18 to 36 points on Friday but achieved a 292-point weekly advance.

Speculative Traders Reduce Long Exposure

The latest Commitment of Traders report revealed significant positioning changes among speculative participants. Traders slashed 44,756 contracts from their net long positions in soybean futures and options, bringing net long holdings down to just 12,961 contracts as of mid-January. This reduction signals a shift in sentiment among speculative investors, potentially contributing to the Tuesday morning weakness in the market.

Contract Performance Across Delivery Months

Multiple soybean futures contracts showed divergent performance patterns. March delivery closed Friday at $10.57 3/4, up 4 3/4 cents, but is currently down 1 1/4 cents this session. May contracts settled at $10.68 3/4 with a 4 1/2 cent gain, while July delivery reached $10.81 1/4, up 5 cents—though nearby cash beans remain supported at $9.87 1/4 with their 5 1/4 cent advance.

Export Sales Significantly Behind Normal Pace

Export sales data reveals a concerning trend for the U.S. soybean market. Total soybean commitments currently stand at 30.637 MMT as of early January, representing a 25% shortfall compared to the same period in 2025. These commitments equate to just 71% of the USDA’s seasonal projection and trail the normal pace by 15 percentage points. More troubling, actual accumulated shipments have reached only 17.984 MMT—representing 42% of USDA estimates and significantly below the 60% average pace typical for this time of year. This deficit highlights potential challenges for meeting export obligations throughout the remainder of the marketing season.

Brazilian Harvest Progresses Slowly

According to AgRural’s latest assessment, the Brazilian soybean harvest remains in early stages, with only 2% completion reported as of late January. The sluggish pace of harvest activity in South America’s largest producing region could have implications for global supply dynamics and competitive positioning of U.S. beans in the export market throughout the coming months.

The combination of Tuesday morning’s pullback, reduced speculative positioning, lagging export sales, and slow Brazilian harvest progress presents a complex landscape for market participants monitoring soybean futures prices in the sessions ahead.