#BTC何时反弹？ Bernstein: Bitcoin (BTC) Bottoms Out at $60,000! The 2026 Crypto Market Will Rebound!

Asset management firm Bernstein's analysts expect that despite Bitcoin briefly dropping to the $75,000 range on Monday, down about 40% from its all-time high, the current downturn in the crypto market is still poised for recovery in 2026.

Bitcoin Will Rebound from $60,000 Bottom
In their latest report to clients, led by analyst Gautam Chhugani, the team stated that the crypto market may still be in a "short-term bear cycle," but they anticipate this trend will reverse within this year. Bernstein believes Bitcoin could bottom out in the first half of this year, around the $60,000 range near the previous cycle's high, then gradually establish a higher price base.

Central Bank Gold Purchases Lead to Relative Weakness in Bitcoin
Bernstein analyzed this correction against Bitcoin's underperformance relative to gold over the past year. During this period, global central banks significantly increased their gold holdings, becoming a major driver of gold price strength. The report pointed out that Bitcoin's market cap is currently only about 4% of gold's market cap, near a two-year low. Meanwhile, central banks, including China and India, accelerated gold accumulation, raising gold's share of global foreign exchange reserves to about 29% by the end of 2025. Despite Bitcoin's relative weakness compared to gold in this cycle, Bernstein emphasized that the past two years can be viewed as an "institutionalization cycle" for Bitcoin.

Analysts note that the assets under management (AUM) of Bitcoin spot ETFs have rapidly grown to approximately $165 billion, and the rise of corporate Bitcoin reserve strategies signals a significant shift in market structure. Bernstein believes these institutional forces have driven the strong rally in this cycle, differentiating it from past bubbles dominated by retail investors with wild swings. US Policy Could Be a Catalyst Bernstein also mentioned that US policy developments could become an important catalyst for the future market. The report specifically pointed out that the US has established a "Bitcoin strategic reserve," mainly sourced from government confiscations of Bitcoin holdings.

Analysts believe that if the Federal Reserve shifts policy under the leadership of nominee Kevin Warsh, coupled with a political climate more supportive of the crypto industry, it could lead to Bitcoin being taken more seriously as a sovereign or reserve asset—even though such an outcome remains uncertain. The analysts wrote, "We do not believe that if the digital asset market continues to decline, the US government will remain passive."

Institutional Funds Remain Resilient
Regarding capital flows and market structure, Bernstein pointed out that institutional participation remains resilient. The outflows from spot ETFs since their peak still constitute a relatively small proportion of total holdings, and there have been no chain liquidations like those seen in past cycles during miner leverage blowouts. Additionally, even when prices briefly fell below the cost basis, companies like MicroStrategy continued to buy Bitcoin during the downturn. Mining companies have also diversified their income sources through AI data centers and other businesses, making them more resilient than in previous cycles.

Bernstein: More Like a "Late-Cycle Correction"
Bernstein ultimately believes that the current market weakness is more akin to a deep correction at the end of a bull market rather than the start of a new long-term crypto winter. While short-term volatility may persist, Bernstein expects the market to reverse in 2026, laying the foundation for what could be "the most influential cycle" for Bitcoin, with long-term implications that may even surpass the traditional four-year cycle framework.