Why My Best Stock Picks Stumbled in 2025—But Could Soar in 2026

When I selected five tech giants for my investment portfolio at the end of 2024, I expected strong performance across the board. The list included Meta Platforms, Amazon, PayPal, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, ASML, Alphabet, CrowdStrike, DLocal, MercadoLibre, and Nvidia. While most of these stock picks delivered impressive returns, three significant laggards remind investors that even the best-researched investment decisions don’t always pan out as expected. The question now: are these underperformers worth another look in 2026?

How the Market Separated the Winners from the Losers

The S&P 500’s impressive 16.4% rally in 2025 set a high bar for performance. Against this benchmark, three of my selected equity positions significantly disappointed. Meta, Amazon, and PayPal each posted returns that fell short of the broader market—but for entirely different reasons.

When I visualize the performance gaps, PayPal’s struggle stands out most starkly. The stock faced persistent headwinds throughout 2025, creating what could be an intriguing contrarian opportunity. Meanwhile, Meta and Amazon underperformed for reasons that paint very different pictures about their 2026 prospects.

Meta’s Capex Challenge: A Test of Investor Patience

Meta’s troubles began in earnest when the company reported third-quarter results. The culprit? Management’s announcement that capital expenditure increases would continue into 2026. Rather than viewing this as strategic infrastructure building, the market punished the stock, selling off on concerns about immediate profit pressure.

However, this reaction may overlook a critical point: if Meta’s data center investments deliver the return on investment management has promised, the stock could reverse course dramatically. The company’s willingness to spend aggressively suggests confidence in the underlying technology payoffs. For investors with a two-to-three-year horizon, this spending binge could prove to be exactly the catalyst needed for substantial gains.

Amazon’s High Premium Evaporates

Amazon presents a different narrative. Throughout 2025, the company wasn’t dragging down a poor business—rather, it was normalizing from an inflated valuation. The stock carried a substantial premium heading into the year; now it trades in line with other mega-cap technology companies.

Yet the company’s recent financial performance tells a compelling story. Amazon’s business fundamentals have strengthened over the past few quarters, with solid execution in both cloud services and e-commerce. Once the market recognizes that this operational strength merits a premium valuation again, the stock could be positioned for robust 2026 gains. The company essentially compressed years of future growth expectations into its 2025 decline.

PayPal: When Valuation Becomes Irresistible

PayPal represents the most interesting paradox: a struggling turnaround story that simultaneously looks absurdly cheap. The company isn’t delivering the growth investors demand from a tech-oriented business. Yet at less than 10 times forward earnings, even moderate improvements in execution could trigger significant mean reversion.

PayPal’s exposure to global payment flows is genuinely valuable, even if current market sentiment doesn’t reflect that. The company has been methodically repurchasing shares, which, combined with double-digit growth in diluted earnings per share, could eventually force the market’s hand on valuation. At some point, a stock simply becomes too inexpensive to ignore, regardless of current headwinds.

Three Comeback Candidates Worth Watching in 2026

All three of these lagging stock picks possess the potential to beat the market in 2026, though with varying degrees of conviction. Meta has clear catalysts in its capex payoffs. Amazon’s operational strength should eventually command a valuation premium again. PayPal requires a more significant shift in market psychology, though the fundamental setup is intriguing for patient investors.

These positions aren’t slam-dunk recommendations. PayPal, in particular, carries execution risk that could disappoint again. Yet for investors with the risk tolerance to ride out volatility, all three stocks merit serious consideration as part of a diversified equity strategy. The market’s 2025 pessimism may have created exactly the kind of opportunity that rewards patient contrarian thinking in 2026.

The lesson isn’t that my initial stock picks were wrong—it’s that markets often overshoot in their reaction to negative catalysts, sometimes creating better entry points than existed before. Whether 2026 validates this thesis will ultimately determine whether this year’s disappointments become next year’s gains.