Bitcoin 2026 Dollar Forecast: Galaxy Digital's Uncertain Market Outlook

Galaxy Digital’s research team analyzed multiple macroeconomic and market risks that make it extremely difficult to forecast the dollar value of bitcoin in 2026. According to the company’s latest report, next year is likely to be one of the most challenging periods to predict bitcoin’s price movement.

Galaxy Digital Research Head Alex Thorn stated last month on the X platform that 2026 will be “too chaotic to predict,” highlighting a mix of macro uncertainties, geopolitical risks, and unstable crypto momentum. Thorn’s comments are based on analyses presented in the December publication titled “Crypto, Bitcoin, DeFi, and AI Predictions for 2026.”

At the time of writing, Thorn noted that the overall crypto market is in a deep bear market. While bitcoin trades around $78,730, he indicated that downside risks will persist until it surpasses the $100,000–$105,000 range. This demonstrates how cautious market participants are when making 2026 dollar forecasts.

What Do Derivative Markets Say About the 2026 Prediction?

Signals from options markets clearly reveal the uncertainty surrounding bitcoin price forecasts. According to Galaxy Research’s analysis, bitcoin option pricing indicates that outcomes with radically different results have similar probabilities for the upcoming year.

Professional traders consider the likelihood of prices being around $70,000 or $130,000 in mid-2026 as equally probable. By the end of the year, similar probabilities are seen between $50,000 and $250,000. This broad forecast range clearly shows that institutional investors are preparing for significant volatility swings rather than a clear trend in a specific direction.

Options markets are the primary tool for professionals seeking to hedge future price risks, and such wide forecast ranges indicate that market participants are taking cautious positions.

Structural Maturity Signals Influence Price Predictions

A deeper structural change is occurring beneath the surface. Thorn states that long-term bitcoin volatility is decreasing, and this shift is linked to the development of institutional strategies. Structures like options writing and yield generation programs tend to smooth out extreme price movements.

This evolution is also observed in bitcoin’s volatility smile metrics. Thorn noted that downside protection is now priced higher than upside positions. This pattern, common in mature macro assets like stocks or commodities, is rarely seen in young high-growth markets.

If the 2026 Dollar Forecast Is Made: Institutional Adoption Will Play a Leading Role

Galaxy Digital believes that short-term price fluctuations will not weaken bitcoin’s long-term outlook. Even if market movements are dull or limited in 2026, institutional adoption and market maturation will continue.

The company emphasizes the likelihood of a large asset allocation platform incorporating bitcoin into standard portfolio models. Such a move would integrate bitcoin into default investment strategies rather than optional transactions, accelerating stable capital flows independent of market cycles.

These institutional factors cannot be ignored when making the 2026 dollar forecast. Instead of human-driven trading, money coming through automated systems could be the main factor influencing price movements in 2027 and beyond.

2027 Target: $250,000 Outlook

Galaxy Digital maintains its long-term bullish outlook. The expansion of institutional access, potential easing of monetary conditions, and increased demand for alternative assets could enable bitcoin to function as a gold-like hedge.

The company’s forecast that bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2027 indicates that the structural growth will continue beyond the temporary pause in 2026. This suggests that uncertainties in the 2026 forecast will be less significant in the long run.

In conclusion, Galaxy Digital’s analysis highlights the difficulty of predicting the 2026 dollar value, but also shows that the long-term potential of bitcoin will be shaped by institutional development and market maturity, maintaining its influence over the next decade.