2026-01-31 04:10:20

Overview of ETH Technicals on January 31: Short-term bearish, medium-term consolidation, long-term trend intact; key levels 2630 (strong support) → 2800 (bull-bear boundary) → 2900 (strong resistance).

1. Real-time Market (January 31, 12:00, UTC+8)

- Price: $2748, intra-day -2.8%, weekly -7.2%
- Catalysts: Market-wide decline + algorithmic sell-off, briefly touched a low of 2634
- Volume: Significantly increased, panic selling emerged, liquidation rising

2. Core Technical Indicators

- Trend (Daily): Fell below the 50-day moving average, still above the 200-day moving average; short-term bearish, medium-term consolidation
- RSI (Daily): 37, approaching oversold, rebound probability rising but trend remains weak
- MACD (Daily): Histogram turning negative, bearish momentum strengthening, watch for divergence signals
- Support/Resistance: 2630 (strong support) → 2800 (bull-bear boundary) → 2900 (strong resistance) → 3000 (strong resistance)

3. Executable Trading Strategies

1. Short-term (Intraday)
- Rebound to 2800-2830, resist and short, stop loss at 2870, target 2680-2630
- Stabilize at 2630, light long position, stop loss at 2600, target 2750-2800
2. Medium-term (1-2 weeks)
- Build positions gradually at 2630-2700, stop loss at 2580, target 2880-2900
- Break through 2900, retest for confirmation, add positions, target 3100+
3. Risk Management
- Position size ≤30%, single trade stop loss ≤2%
- Monitor Federal Reserve rate decisions and ETF capital flows, beware of black swans

4. Time Cycle Perspectives

- Short-term (1-3 days): Defense of 2630, if stabilized then rebound to 2800, if lost then watch 2550-2600
- Medium-term (1-2 weeks): Consolidation between 2630-2900, awaiting direction
- Long-term (1-3 months): Supported by halving narrative, 200-day moving average unbroken, trend not reversed

5. Operational Priorities

1. First observe the validity of 2630 support, avoid rushing to bottom fish
2. Rebound to 2800-2830, gradually reduce positions or short
3. If 2630 stabilizes, try a small long position with strict stop loss

ETH-2,74%

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