Trump just named Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair. I looked into what kind of person Kevin is. To put it simply: he’s not the type of central banker who just recites academic papers, nor is he a politician who only engages in political rhetoric. Instead, he’s someone who has actually worked on Wall Street, made decisions in the White House, and survived the financial crisis at the Fed. Warsh joined the Fed at age 35, making him one of the youngest board members in history, right during the 2008 financial crisis. He experienced the QE rounds, liquidity firefighting, and global central bank coordination firsthand, not as an armchair critic. This is very important — he has muscle memory when it comes to “systemic risk” and “market out of control.” After leaving the Fed, he didn’t retreat into an ivory tower but went to a hedge fund-backed family office, served as a public company director, taught at Stanford, and wrote articles at the Hoover Institution. In short, he’s always been at the intersection of market frontline and policy core. Many label him as “hawkish,” but that’s not entirely accurate. Early on, he indeed opposed unchecked QE, criticized the Fed’s balance sheet expansion, and warned about moral hazard. But in recent years, he’s clearly shifted: he doesn’t blindly trust models, avoids technocratic approaches, and emphasizes policy transparency and market expectation management. To put it plainly: don’t just revise data after the fact; clarify the rules first. Regarding crypto and Bitcoin, he’s not “all in crypto,” but within the Fed system, he’s shown a fairly open attitude. At least he doesn’t see all new things as catastrophic floods. If he truly takes the chair, the biggest change might not be “immediate massive easing,” but three points: first, decision-making more aligned with market logic rather than academic models; second, more predictable policy paths; third, a significantly increased sensitivity to liquidity and financial conditions. In summary: Kevin Warsh isn’t here to cause a revolution, but likely to correct course. In a Fed system long dominated by technocrats, he might be the most “trader’s perspective” candidate for chair in recent years. For the markets, this itself is a huge variable.
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Trump just named Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair. I looked into what kind of person Kevin is. To put it simply: he’s not the type of central banker who just recites academic papers, nor is he a politician who only engages in political rhetoric. Instead, he’s someone who has actually worked on Wall Street, made decisions in the White House, and survived the financial crisis at the Fed. Warsh joined the Fed at age 35, making him one of the youngest board members in history, right during the 2008 financial crisis. He experienced the QE rounds, liquidity firefighting, and global central bank coordination firsthand, not as an armchair critic. This is very important — he has muscle memory when it comes to “systemic risk” and “market out of control.” After leaving the Fed, he didn’t retreat into an ivory tower but went to a hedge fund-backed family office, served as a public company director, taught at Stanford, and wrote articles at the Hoover Institution. In short, he’s always been at the intersection of market frontline and policy core. Many label him as “hawkish,” but that’s not entirely accurate. Early on, he indeed opposed unchecked QE, criticized the Fed’s balance sheet expansion, and warned about moral hazard. But in recent years, he’s clearly shifted: he doesn’t blindly trust models, avoids technocratic approaches, and emphasizes policy transparency and market expectation management. To put it plainly: don’t just revise data after the fact; clarify the rules first. Regarding crypto and Bitcoin, he’s not “all in crypto,” but within the Fed system, he’s shown a fairly open attitude. At least he doesn’t see all new things as catastrophic floods. If he truly takes the chair, the biggest change might not be “immediate massive easing,” but three points: first, decision-making more aligned with market logic rather than academic models; second, more predictable policy paths; third, a significantly increased sensitivity to liquidity and financial conditions. In summary: Kevin Warsh isn’t here to cause a revolution, but likely to correct course. In a Fed system long dominated by technocrats, he might be the most “trader’s perspective” candidate for chair in recent years. For the markets, this itself is a huge variable.