Red carpet scoop! Trump personally endorses the Federal Reserve Chair candidate, with a 96% probability pointing to him

On January 30th, local time, former U.S. President Trump inadvertently revealed a key clue about the new Federal Reserve Chair candidate on the red carpet of the movie “Melania.” Facing a follow-up question from veteran political journalist Rachael Bade, Trump did not hide his admiration: “He is a well-known figure in the financial world. Many people believe he should have been elected years ago, so this won’t be surprising.”

This statement instantly ignited market nerves — combined with the background of Trump meeting with the two final candidates on the same day, public opinion almost unanimously focused on former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh. More importantly, data from the prediction platform Polymarket shows that Warsh’s nomination probability has soared to 96%, almost locking in the victory in advance.

Duel of the Titans: Why Did Warsh Stand Out?

The two final candidates selected by Trump are considered the “top-tier configuration” in the financial sector:

• Kevin Warsh: The only familiar face appearing on two candidate lists, served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006-2011, with deep roots in international finance and banking. He has extensive connections on Wall Street and is praised by Trump as “a highly respected figure in the industry.” Sources close to Trump reveal that he has already received “tacit support.”
• Rick Reider: Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income at BlackRock, managing $2.4 trillion in assets. Although he also visited the White House, the market views his outsider status and past political donation history as shortcomings.

Warsh’s core advantage lies in “dual alignment”: he fits Trump’s description of “not surprising, long overdue,” and with his two-time finalist experience, he is seen as the “most certain” candidate by the market. Trump’s emphasis on a “reliable candidate list” is also interpreted as a covert endorsement of his loyalty.

Unresolved Suspense: Variables at a 96% Probability

Although the market is almost unanimously betting on Warsh, Rachael Bade reminds us: “Nothing is final yet.” With Powell’s term ending in May, Trump could still pull off a “Apprentice-style surprise.” However, based on three major signals, Warsh’s victory seems inevitable:

1. Trump explicitly mentioned “should have been elected years ago,” closely aligning with Warsh’s previous loss.
2. Sources close to the White House confirm a “tacit support” status, far beyond ordinary candidate treatment.
3. Polymarket’s probability has surged from 80% earlier to 96%, reflecting strong capital confidence in the outcome.

Market Holds Its Breath for Official Announcement

As Trump announced that a “final decision will be announced soon,” global financial markets have entered a sensitive moment. If Warsh is ultimately appointed, the former Fed governor who criticized the Fed’s balance sheet overexpansion could push for policy adjustments involving rate cuts and balance sheet reduction simultaneously, potentially triggering chain reactions in U.S. stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other assets.

This nomination drama spanning the red carpet and the financial world is about to reach its conclusion — do you think Warsh will become the new Fed Chair? Feel free to share your opinion in the comments!