ADA whale holdings hit a new high. Why are large funds steadily accumulating at low levels?

Capital Structure Is Undergoing Dramatic Divergence

According to the latest data, a silent transfer of funds is happening on the Cardano chain. Over the past two months, large wallets holding between 100,000 and 100 million ADA have cumulatively increased their holdings by approximately 45.47 million tokens. Meanwhile, retail investors have continued to reduce their holdings amid price pressure. This divergence reflects two completely different mindsets and expectations among market participants.

The Truth Behind the Data

Whales Are Positioning at Low Levels

According to on-chain data disclosed by Santiment, as of January 2026, large wallets holding between 100,000 and 100 million ADA have increased their share of circulating supply from 66.3% to 67.53%, totaling about 24.33 billion ADA. This 1.23 percentage point increase may seem small, but it corresponds to a real increase of 45.47 million ADA—this is not passive holding but active positioning.

Retail Investors Are Being Forced to Exit

In stark contrast, small wallets holding 100 ADA or less sold about 22,000 tokens in the past three weeks, with their share of circulating supply dropping to 0.121%. Although this number appears small, it reflects a trend: when prices weaken, retail investors are more likely to be forced to cut losses and exit.

What Does This Mean

Classic Bottom Signal

Historically, there is a pattern in crypto asset cycles: whales tend to position themselves early when market sentiment is at its lowest, while retail investors are forced out during volatility. The current ADA trend closely matches this pattern.

When prices are under pressure and market confidence is low, large funds quietly accumulate—this usually indicates an improving chip structure in the market. Once macro sentiment improves or funds flow back, the chips held by long-term holders can produce stronger price elasticity.

Validation of On-Chain Undervalued Signals

It is worth noting that, according to the latest MVRV indicator data released by Santiment, ADA is currently in a -7.9% undervalued zone. The MVRV indicator reflects the ratio of market value to realized value; a negative value means that the average holder of ADA is at a loss. This is often seen as a buying opportunity—because profits are below the normal “zero-sum game” level.

Large funds increasing their holdings at this time are, to some extent, validating the authenticity of this undervalued signal through their actions.

Fundamentals Are Improving

In addition to on-chain data, ADA’s fundamental ecosystem is also undergoing positive changes:

• CME futures launched, bringing institutional investors into the market
• Ouroboros Leios upgrade progressing, optimizing technical layers
• Cross-chain integration between Bitcoin and Cardano entering final stages, expanding ecosystem applications
• Charles Hoskinson confirming an important integration announcement this month
• Continued attention from institutions like Grayscale towards ADA

All these factors support a fundamental basis for a rebound after chip concentration.

Summary

Currently, ADA exhibits typical bottom accumulation characteristics: large funds are firmly accumulating at low levels, retail investors are forced to exit during price weakness, and on-chain undervaluation signals are clear. Such structural changes often do not imply an immediate short-term rise, but historical experience shows they are usually important precursors to medium-term trends.

As more ADA flows from retail investors to long-term holders, market circulation pressure is decreasing, accumulating potential energy for a future rebound. For market participants, paying attention to changes in on-chain chip structure often provides better trend insights than tracking short-term price fluctuations.