The market sentiment on Monday was relatively positive, mainly because Trump's increase in tariffs on Canada did not trigger retaliations from Canada and China. On the contrary, Canada showed signs of retreat, and China also did not make any clear statements. The market has somewhat eased, but the Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's IEEPA has still not been announced, especially since the Supreme Court is currently in recess, with the earliest decision expected around February 20. Until then, tariffs remain one of Trump's strongest weapons. Besides tariffs, the impact of yen exchange rate interventions and the U.S. government shutdown possibly at the end of the month seem limited for now. Of course, the most important factor is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The upcoming FOMC meeting early Thursday is highly unlikely to result in a rate change. Let's see how Powell speaks; the next meeting is in March. Hopefully, before then, Trump can announce a candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair.

Looking at Bitcoin data, although prices declined over the weekend, there was a slight rebound starting Monday. At least, the negative factors did not continue to expand, and the turnover rate was not high, indicating that short-term investors are still actively trading. Other data still look healthy, with no obvious signs of panic.

The current chip structure also appears normal. There is a dense zone for BTC between $83,000 and $90,000. However, since these are mostly short-term investor movements, it is too early to clearly identify a bottoming area. Based on recent observations, unless there is systemic risk, the probability of falling below $83,000 is not high.

A pullback around $87,700 can be considered for long positions, with a rebound target around $89,280–$90,200.