Bold Predictions for 2026: The Four Major VCs Are Calculating the Future of the Global Economy

All-In Podcast’s four major technology investors have conducted a detailed analysis of the economic, business, and technological trends for 2026. Their calculations and strategic forecasts serve as important guidance for investors and entrepreneurs. What emerges from this dialogue are the policy shifts in California, new business structures in the AI era, and significant geopolitical changes.

California Crisis: Historic Capital Outflow Triggered by Wealth Tax

California’s wealth tax issue is likely to be the biggest point of focus in 2026. Many major investors and entrepreneurs have already completed or are considering relocating to Texas. The favorable climate, with temperatures around 70°F (approximately 21°C), also encourages migration.

The scale of this outflow is more severe than expected. Calculating the net worth of billionaires who have already moved, the total reaches approximately $500 billion. This figure could have a profoundly negative impact on California’s long-term budget foundation. The probability of a vote on this issue is currently estimated at around 80%, and if such a vote occurs, about half of the state’s taxable assets could be lost, leading to a serious situation.

The proposed super-voting rights clause is particularly concerning. Under this clause, tax authorities would recalculate the value of held shares based on a multiple of super-voting rights. For example, if founders of Google hold 52% of voting rights and the market cap is $4 trillion, their net worth could be considered not as the actual $200 billion but as $1 trillion each. This would effectively increase the tax rate from 5% to between 25% and 50%.

Business Winners’ Formula: Copper, Huawei, IPO Surge

The biggest business winners in 2026 are dispersed across multiple sectors.

Strategic value of copper is rapidly gaining recognition. Currently, copper is the most useful, affordable, and conductive material, used everywhere from data centers to semiconductors and weapon systems. At the current pace, the global copper supply will face about a 70% shortage by 2040. Calculations of this gap suggest that a sharp rise in copper prices is inevitable.

Huawei’s semiconductor strategy is also worth watching. Huawei is collaborating with SMIC to fully enter the semiconductor field and is aggressively advancing development. Performance is expected to surpass Western expectations.

IPO resurgence is another characteristic phenomenon of 2026. In recent years, the decline in listed companies and the trend toward privatization have been problematic, but 2026 marks a major turning point. Many companies are expected to successfully go public, creating trillions of dollars in new market capitalization. This also functions as part of the “Trump boom.”

Amazon reaching the ‘corporate singularity’ is another key indicator. They are expected to be the first company where the benefits of robots surpass those of humans. With the steady progress of autonomous vehicle company Zoox and the large-scale replacement of human employees with robots, Amazon’s orders in Austin can be delivered on the same day, supported by massive automation warehouses and logistics networks.

Explosive growth in niche markets like Polymarket should also be factored in. Polymarket has evolved from a quirky niche market into a platform capable of providing insights on current issues. Starting with a partnership with the New York Stock Exchange, all exchanges—including Robinhood, Coinbase, and Nasdaq—are expected to make some moves in 2026. Prediction markets will become not just financial tools but the very news itself.

Reasons for Losers: SaaS Decline and State Government Fiscal Crisis

Conversely, the losers in 2026 are also becoming clearer.

The enterprise SaaS industry is likely to accelerate its decline. This industry, with an annual economic scale of 3-4 trillion dollars, derives 90% of its revenue from two segments: “maintenance” and “migration.” With advances in AI models and technology, these two segments’ economic opportunities are expected to shrink rapidly. The decline in stock prices of major companies like ServiceNow, Workday, and DocuSign in 2025 foreshadows this trend.

State government funding difficulties will also worsen. As exposure to waste, fraud, and abuse within state agencies increases, public confidence in their long-term ability to pay will diminish. Even more serious is the revelation of unrecognized pension liabilities in each state, exposing a huge black hole in state finances.

Young white-collar workers in the U.S. are also facing difficulties. Finding entry-level jobs is becoming increasingly hard because companies realize it is easier to automate with AI than to train new graduates. Routine, repetitive tasks—traditionally handled by recent graduates—are expected to be replaced by AI.

Major Business Shift: From M&A to IP Licensing

The structure of business transactions itself is poised for a major change.

A fundamental shift is underway where IP licensing transactions will replace traditional M&A (mergers and acquisitions). Antitrust scrutiny is becoming increasingly strict, making large M&As difficult to execute. As a result, companies will adopt large-scale IP licensing agreements to acquire technology and talent. Partnerships like Google with Character.AI, Microsoft with OpenAI, and NVIDIA with Grok exemplify this model.

Meanwhile, mega M&As exceeding $500 billion are still anticipated. Companies like Apple, Meta, Microsoft, or Amazon may acquire AI startups such as XAI, Mistral, Perplexity, or Anthropic. Many of these AI firms wish to remain independent and go public, but irresistible offers are expected to emerge in the end. If President Trump instructs the government to “Make M&A great again,” it would be a crucial move for the U.S. to maintain its global competitiveness.

Breakthrough in Coding Assistants and Tool Use

A major breakthrough is expected in the fields of coding assistants and tool use. Similar to the chatbot at the end of 2022, enthusiasm in this area is rapidly increasing, and 2026 is projected to become increasingly important. While specific companies are not named, multiple players are expected to make significant progress.

Geopolitical Reversal: What Iran’s Revolution Could Bring

Finally, the most bold and unpredictable change may occur in the geopolitical arena.

A revolution in Iran leading to the overthrow of the Ayatollah regime has been suggested by several experts. However, subsequent developments are likely to disappoint many expectations. The collapse of Iran is not expected to bring stability to the Middle East but rather to trigger more conflicts.

By comprehensively analyzing these multifaceted forecasts, it becomes clear that 2026 will be not just an economic turning point but a fundamental shift in geopolitical and industrial structures. For investors and business leaders, accurately calculating these trends and responding strategically will be key to success.