VanEck predicts Bitcoin price reaching $3 million by 2050, recommends allocating 1-3% of the portfolio.

Source: DigitalToday Original Title: Still Day Trading? VanEck: “Bitcoin at $3 Million by 2050, Hold Tight” Original Link: Asset management firm VanEck recently released a long-term outlook report predicting that the price of Bitcoin(BTC) could reach $3 million before 2050. This forecast is based on the premise of expanded structural adoption of Bitcoin within the global financial system, rather than short-term market overheating judgments.

In the report, VanEck assumes that Bitcoin will gradually be incorporated into the institutional framework over the coming decades. The company states that this model is not based on overly optimistic hype but is designed based on moderate assumptions of increased institutional investment and institutional use.

Under the basic scenario, VanEck assumes that Bitcoin will achieve an average annual growth rate of 15% over the next 25 years. Matthew Sigel, head of VanEck’s Digital Asset Research, recently stated in an interview that this forecast is “based on the premise that Bitcoin is recognized internationally as a reserve asset(reserve asset).”

This reserve asset scenario includes an expanded role for Bitcoin in international trade settlement. VanEck’s analysis suggests that by 2050, Bitcoin could handle 5-10% of global trade transactions. The share of domestic transactions settled globally could also reach about 5%. This is close to the current proportion of the British pound in international settlements(about 7.4%).

VanEck’s outlook also depends on changes in central bank reserve strategies. According to the report, central banks may allocate about 2.5% of their foreign exchange reserves to Bitcoin over the long term. In an environment where national debt expands and concerns over monetary stability intensify, this scenario could become a reality. VanEck views Bitcoin as a long-term hedge against potential risks to the existing monetary system.

To reflect uncertainty, VanEck proposes three adoption scenarios. In a pessimistic scenario, assuming an average annual growth rate of 2%, the Bitcoin price in 2050 would be about $130,000. In the basic scenario, with an average annual growth rate of 15%, the price is expected to reach approximately $2.9 million. In a bullish scenario where Bitcoin attains a status comparable to gold as a global reserve asset, the price could rise to a maximum of $53.4 million. Currently, Bitcoin’s trading price is around $90,000.

Based on this long-term outlook, VanEck recommends investors allocate 1-3% of their entire portfolio to Bitcoin. According to VanEck’s previous analysis, adding a 3% Bitcoin allocation in a traditional 60/40 portfolio yields the highest risk-adjusted returns.

VanEck emphasizes that this outlook is actually more conservative than in the past. In December 2024, the long-term growth rate of Bitcoin was assumed to be 25% annually, but this time it has been lowered to 15%, adopting a more cautious approach. VanEck defines Bitcoin as a strategic portfolio asset rather than a short-term speculative asset and advocates that completely excluding Bitcoin could pose a greater long-term risk.