Zama's no-lock-up TGE is coming soon: the market confidence and risks behind full unlocking

Zama Protocol announced the specific schedule for the TGE on January 22, with the most notable aspect being the “fully unlocked at receipt” setup. This means that on February 2, all users participating in the public sale can trade ZAMA tokens immediately upon receipt, with no lock-up period. This is uncommon in project TGEs and reflects the project’s confidence, but also introduces new uncertainties to the market.

Key Event Overview

Timeline Confirmation

• Public sale end: January 24, 20:00 UTC (about 2 days from now)
• Token distribution: February 2
• Unlock method: Fully unlocked upon receipt, no lock-up period

Project Background Brief

Zama is an infrastructure project focused on privacy computing, providing a privacy layer for public blockchains through Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE) technology. According to the latest information, the project is expected to become a crypto unicorn by 2025, with a funding scale of $1.38 million, backed by top institutions including Pantera. The project launched trading on January 9, 2026, and has been operational for 13 days.

Significance of Fully Unlocking

Why is this special?

Most projects set a lock-up period for their TGEs, even those with strong funding backgrounds, typically with linear unlocks over 3-6 months. This aims to prevent large early participants from dumping on launch day, maintaining price stability. Zama’s choice to fully unlock means:

• All public sale participants can trade freely on February 2
• The project team has full confidence in market liquidity and price stability
• No artificial unlock timing creates arbitrage opportunities

Potential Risk Signals

This decision may also indicate that the project team is prepared to handle large sell pressure or believes market sentiment has already priced in negative news. According to related information, Zama’s pre-market price has already fallen 20-30% from the issuance price, which could suggest the market is preemptively pricing in risks.

Current Market Status and Expectations

Current Price Performance

Market Participation Heat

According to the latest news, over 18 million USDT have participated in Zama’s public sale via crypto bidding, with a total of 2,411 bids. This indicates relatively stable participation, but the ongoing price decline reflects market caution regarding post-TGE performance.

Market Expectation Analysis

Based on prediction market data, the probability that Zama’s FDV on the first day of trading exceeds $600 million is approximately 54%. This indicates significant divergence in market expectations—some bullish, some worried about dumping. The fully unlocked mechanism may intensify this uncertainty.

Personal Observations

From a fundamental perspective, Zama’s funding background and technical focus are solid; privacy computing is a genuine demand in the public chain space. However, market sentiment shows that the continuous pre-market decline suggests participants are already somewhat pessimistic about the launch day. The fully unlocked mechanism, in this context, could serve as a “stress test”—if market sentiment is already bearish, full unlocking might reduce the uncertainty of sell pressure; but if further downside exists, it could lead to more direct dumping.

Summary

Zama’s fully unlocked TGE demonstrates the project’s confidence but also pushes the market on February 2 into a critical “stress test” moment. Current data shows the market has already priced in some risks pre-launch, but the potential for immediate sell pressure remains. For participants, it’s important to understand that this is not a project with a “lock-up period to protect the price,” but one that relies on fundamentals and market demand to support its price. The next two weeks will directly reflect the market’s true view of the long-term value of privacy computing infrastructure.