BTC falls below 75% of supply cost basis: distribution pressure increases, downside risk dominates

According to the latest news, Glassnode released on-chain data analysis indicating that Bitcoin’s spot price has fallen below the 0.75 supply cost percentile and has not recovered. This technical signal suggests increasing market distribution pressure and a significant rise in risk levels. Currently, BTC is consolidating around $90,000, facing an important support test based on cost foundation.

Meaning of the Supply Cost Percentile

What is the supply cost percentile

The supply cost percentile is a key metric in on-chain analysis used to measure the distribution of market participants’ holding costs. The 0.75 supply cost percentile means that 75% of the Bitcoin supply was acquired below the current price based on cost basis. In other words, when BTC price drops below this level, it indicates that over three-quarters of the supply is in a loss.

Why is this level critical

This indicator’s importance lies in reflecting the overall profit/loss status of the market. When the price falls below the 75% supply cost percentile, a large number of holders are in loss, which often triggers two market reactions: one is panic selling by those in loss, and the other is holders’ steadfast holding. According to relevant information, the current market is precisely in this high-risk state.

Current Market Situation Analysis

Price and cost dislocation

According to relevant information, BTC has retreated from a recent high of $98,000 to the current around $90,000. Although it has increased by 1.85% in 24 hours, the seven-day decline is 6.89%, indicating increased short-term volatility. More notably, the short-term holders’ cost basis is $98,300, meaning recent entrants are already facing significant losses.

Market Signal Contradictions

Interestingly, some positive signals are shown in relevant information:

• Spot market selling pressure has eased, consolidating in a low trading volume environment
• Leverage ratios are low, and the market considers current volatility as short-term
• ETF capital flows indicate institutional demand is warming
• Large entities are actively accumulating BTC at the bottom phase

However, these positive signals contrast sharply with the downside risks warned by Glassnode. This indicates the market is at a critical divergence point: institutions are accumulating on dips, but technical risk indicators have already sounded alarms.

Risk Assessment and Follow-up Focus

Current risk level

Glassnode explicitly states that unless BTC recovers the 0.75 supply cost percentile key level, downside risk will dominate. This is not just a price issue but also reflects market participants’ psychological expectations. When the vast majority of supply is in loss, the market can easily fall into a panic cycle of “who runs first, who profits.”

Signals to watch

From a personal perspective, the following signals should be closely monitored:

• Whether BTC can effectively recover and stabilize above the 0.75 supply cost percentile
• Whether short-term holders continue to exit or choose to hold
• Whether large holders’ accumulation can offset small holders’ selling pressure
• Whether trading volume can effectively increase to support a price rebound

According to relevant information, when short-term holders’ cost basis reaches $98,300, it typically marks a transition from correction to a more sustained upward trend. However, the price needs to regain this level to confirm the trend.

Summary

BTC falling below the 75% supply cost percentile reflects that market participants are generally in a loss state, which is a significant technical warning. Although factors like institutional accumulation on dips and easing spot selling pressure provide some optimism, risks have not truly dissipated. The market’s key question is whether it can find effective support at the current price range; otherwise, downside risk will indeed dominate. The next move depends on whether large holders’ accumulation can outweigh small holders’ selling pressure.