1. Market Overview

According to the latest candlestick data, BTC's current price is 89,959.7 USDT (corresponding to the latest one-hour closing price), and the overall market shows a weak oscillation pattern. Over the past 14 days of daily candlesticks, BTC's high point was 95,871.5, and the low was 86,420, with significant volatility in the range. In the last two trading days, BTC's daily closing prices remained at 89,454.7 and 89,959.7, indicating short-term weakness in upward momentum, with daily trading volume gradually shrinking from a peak of 15,800 coins to below 3,000 coins, reflecting cautious liquidity flow.
From the hourly data in the past 48 hours, BTC quickly surged from around 88,000 to a high of 90,360 but failed to sustain a breakthrough above 90,200-90,360, then maintained a range of 89,800-90,100 for consolidation. Hourly trading volume is notably low, peaking at just over 300 coins, then falling below 100 coins, indicating market hesitation and no clear signs of major capital involvement.
Combined with related news and analyst opinions, the overall market sentiment remains cautious. Analysts generally believe that BTC's upward movement is constrained by key resistance levels, with a short-term strategy mainly focused on "shorting, with rebounds used to short again," and some even suggest further downside potential below current levels.

2. Technical Analysis
Based on 14-day candlestick data, BTC's main resistance zone is between 90,800 and 92,500. The high of 95,871.5 marks a phase top, and 88,000 is a phase bottom. Current support levels are at 87,300 and 86,420; a valid breakdown could accelerate downward movement.
On the daily chart, there was a clear rebound (daily high of 97,924.5), but it was followed by a retreat from high levels, with long upper shadows and bearish candles, indicating exhaustion of bullish momentum. MACD and RSI indicators suggest "bearish momentum persists" and "trend line has been broken," combined with declining actual trading volume, implying limited short-term rebound potential.
On the hourly chart, the recent 48-hour high of 90,360 was only briefly touched before rapid selling pressure emerged, with insufficient rebound energy. Support levels at 89,000 and 88,000 show active trading; if broken, the probability of testing 87,300 and 86,420 increases significantly. A retest or breakdown of this zone could trigger a new downward wave.
Trading volume has shrunk from over 15,000 coins at high points within 14 days to below 3,000 daily, indicating reduced momentum. Hourly volume continues to decline, with increased bullish-bearish divergence.

3. News and Policy Interpretation
Macro news mainly involves ETF quota adjustments, large institutional allocations, and regulatory developments concerning cryptocurrencies. Reports clearly state that "after geopolitical tensions in the US and Europe, BTC prices stabilized around $90,000," which aligns with recent high and low points, with the lowest approaching 88,000 before quickly rebounding to the current range.
Additionally, reports mention "Coinbase establishing an expert committee to address quantum computing risks," which, while not immediately reflected in price volatility, suggests increased industry risk management, positively impacting BTC's long-term fundamentals.
Policy-wise, no new policies have been introduced in the past 24 hours, one week, or one month, indicating limited short-term policy impact and a marginally improving market sentiment. Regarding ETF and options rule adjustments, some reports indicate "BlackRock and other institutions initiating ETF quota changes," but no sharp volatility has been observed, and the market has largely digested these expectations.

4. Analyst Opinions
Based strictly on the provided analyst insights:
- "BTC last week closed with a long upper shadow bullish candle, facing resistance at the neckline of the M-top at 97,500, forming a double-top reversal + trendline break, suggesting the end of wave B rebound and entering wave C decline. Daily resistance levels are at 90,800 → 92,000 → 92,500, with support at 87,300. If the 87,300 low is broken, the trend may accelerate downward, with bearish momentum still present on MACD and RSI... suitable for short-term shorting."
- "BTC entry points: short at around 90,100-91,880, stop loss at 93,460, take profit at 87,230, 84,530, 81,000... this strategy can be followed if not yet executed."
- "Fiyang contract strategy specific product: BTC short entry at 91,500—91,800, stop loss at 92,700, take profit at 89,500."
- "Fiyang contract strategy specific product: BTC long entry at 89,800—90,000, stop loss at 88,300, take profit at 92,300."

Most analysts lean towards short-term shorting, focusing on high resistance zones for short positions, with support at 87,300 and 88,000, and extreme targets down to 84,530 or even 81,000. Few consider low-level buying, but with limited ranges, strict stop-losses, and targets around 92,300, consistent with actual price fluctuations, without obvious divergence from market operations.

5. Future Trend Prediction and Trading Suggestions
Based on the 14-day and 48-hour candlestick data, the current downward trend remains dominant. Key resistance levels are at 90,800, 92,000, and 92,500; without a full breakout, rebound momentum may weaken further. Support levels to watch are at 88,000 and 87,300. The current price of 89,959.7 aligns with these zones, suitable for short-term profit-taking and buying on dips, but it is advisable to short at higher levels with a stop-loss near 92,500.
Trading recommendations:
1. Holders can consider adjusting positions around 89,800-90,100; if rebound weakens, reduce holdings to avoid short-term risks.
2. Aggressive traders can look for short opportunities within 89,800-91,800, targeting 88,000 and 87,300, with stop-loss above 92,300.
3. If volume accelerates downward past 87,300, expect faster decline toward targets of 84,530 and 81,000.

6. Risk Warning
BTC's recent volatility has intensified, and it is currently in a critical zone of bullish-bearish divergence. The current candlestick shows repeated resistance near 90,000, with insufficient volume, implying further correction risk. If prices break below 87,300—86,420, watch out for accelerated declines. Additionally, mainstream capital remains cautious, and news developments or market structural adjustments could trigger extreme fluctuations. It is recommended to adjust stop-loss levels timely and implement risk management measures. Overall, investors should closely monitor the market, operate cautiously, ensure risk controls are in place, and strictly follow trading discipline based on clear candlestick signals and zones, avoiding emotional chasing or panic selling.