Expert predicts the collapse of OpenAI - ForkLog: cryptocurrencies, AI, singularity, future

# Expert predicts the collapse of OpenAI

CEO of OpenAI Sam Altman met with leading investors in the Middle East to organize a new funding round of at least $50 billion, Bloomberg reports citing sources.

According to the agency, the entrepreneur held negotiations including with some individuals from the largest government funds in Abu Dhabi.

The ChatGPT developer intends to raise $50 billion or more with a valuation of $750-830 billion. Discussions are in the early stages and the amount may change.

Additionally, OpenAI discussed with Amazon the possibility of obtaining at least $10 billion.

Previously, MGX — a technology investment company from Abu Dhabi — invested in the firm. Altman’s startup also signed a partnership agreement with G42 to create a massive data center in the United Arab Emirates.

Financial Problems of OpenAI

OpenAI reported revenue of over $20 billion in 2025 — a tenfold increase compared to 2023. However, the rapid increase in cash flow does not help the company remain profitable.

In November, experts analyzed the financial information of the startup leaked online and concluded that it may still be spending more on inference than it earns.

In January, The Information published a report citing internal financial forecasts of OpenAI. The document states that in 2026, the company will lose approximately $14-17 billion. By the end of 2028, net outflows will reach $44 billion.

At the same time, profit is planned to be achieved in 2029, amounting to $14 billion.

The report also claims that ChatGPT developer plans to spend $200 billion by the end of the decade. 60-80% of the funds will be allocated to training and launching AI models.

In December, Deutsche Bank analysts provided even more pessimistic figures. They estimate that Altman’s company’s total negative cash flow will reach $143 billion by 2029 — excluding obligations for building data centers worth $1.4 trillion.

“No startup in the world has operated at such losses,” — experts noted.

Additionally, there is a lawsuit from Elon Musk for $134 billion.

Time to Exit?

Famous investor George Noble stated that he has been observing the collapse of companies for several decades, and OpenAI shows all signs of an impending crash.

OPENAI IS FALLING APART IN REAL TIME

I’ve watched companies implode for decades.

This one has all the warning signs.

OpenAI declared “Code Red” in December.

Altman sent an internal memo telling employees to drop everything because Google’s Gemini 3 is eating their lunch.… pic.twitter.com/D9iJwOOmMe

— George Noble (@gnoble79) January 20, 2026

Among the signals he named:

• the declared “red code” in December because Gemini 3 from Google “takes their bread”; Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff publicly refused ChatGPT in favor of Gemini after two hours of use;
• decline in chatbot traffic in November — the second monthly decline in 2025, while Gemini recorded 650 million users per month;
• financial losses — OpenAI spends $15 million daily only on Sora, $5 billion annually on “creating copyright-infringing memes”;
• lack of innovation — reports showed that in 2025, the company failed to create AI models that surpass previous ones;
• users called GPT-5 “horrible”;
• talent outflow;
• Musk’s lawsuit.

Noble recommends “finding a way out” of the AI sector.

“Sell at the height of the hype before the music stops,” — he said.

In October, OpenAI allowed current and former employees to sell shares worth $6.6 billion. The deal valued the startup at $500 trillion — a record among private firms.

Recall that in the same month, plans for an IPO with a valuation of $1 trillion were announced.